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Warriors at Nuggets

NBA · Monday, Oct 26 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final GS 134 – DEN 114
← NBA / Oct 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS28324034134
DEN32242830114
Team box
GS·DEN
46-85
field goals
42-84
22-44
3-pointers
10-29
20-21
free throws
20-23
45
rebounds
32
31
assists
31
18
turnovers
12
42
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Yaxel LendeborgGS3131126
Stephen CurryGS272433
DeMar DeRozanDEN292142
Nikola JokicDEN3519711
Jamal MurrayDEN361968
Brandin PodziemskiGS331875

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +24
GS +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 8 · GS 24lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 29%, DEN 71% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
DEN by 7.6
Expected score
DEN 122.2 – 114.5 GS
Expected total
236.7
WarriorsThe matchupNuggets
+246Our fair odds−246
114.5Expected points122.2
−0.37Power rating+0.52
111.7Points / game112.5
123.0Allowed / game115.5
42.3FG%43.0
33.33P%29.5
40.3Rebounds / game52.0
0−3Season record1−1
1−9Last 105−5
Jimmy Butler III · Kristaps Porzingis
Moses MoodyOutAlpha Diallo · Cameron Johnson
Julian Strawther · Spencer Jones

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · DEN chance
Our model fair28.9%71.1%
Kalshi31.5%72.4%
Polymarket US31.5%72.4%
ProphetX31.3%71.2%
Novig30.0%70.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 8:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 8:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 8:57 PM CT
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+24629%+21831.5%+21831.5%+22031.3%+23330.0%
DENDenver Nuggets−24671%−26372.4%−26372.4%−24771.2%−23970.5%
SpreadDEN by 7.6
GSGolden State Warriors+7.6our margin+6.5 −10350.7%+6.5 −10350.7%+6.5 +10149.8%+6.5 +10449.0%
DENDenver Nuggets−7.6our margin−6.5 −11653.7%−6.5 −11653.7%−6.5 −11353.1%−6.5 −10852.0%
Totalwe expect 236.7
Over236.7our totalo235.5 −11653.7%o235.5 −11653.7%o235.5 −11252.9%o235.5 −10852.0%
Under236.7our totalu235.5 −10350.7%u235.5 −10350.7%u235.5 −10050.0%u235.5 +10648.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 7.6 expected
Golden State Warriors by 50 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%
← GS wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more61%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more45%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.7 expected
187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.568%
Total over 236.549%
Total over 246.531%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FGui Santosstarted
FYaxel Lendeborgstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FBryce Hopkinsstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·DEN
Oct 24 at PHX
last game
Oct 24 vs NO
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 9:15 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSJimmy Butler III · right acl repair / surgeryOut
GSKristaps Porzingis · not with teamOut
GSMoses Moody · left patellar tendon repair / surgeryOut
Denver Nuggets
DENAlpha Diallo · right wrist sprain/personal reasonsOut
DENCameron Johnson · right ankle sprainOut
DENJulian Strawther · left knee sprainOut
DENSpencer Jones · bilateral hamstring injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
GS·DEN
−0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.52
111.7
points / game
112.5
123.0
points allowed / game
115.5
0−3
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
1−0
0−2
away record
0−1
L3
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
5−5
42.3
FG%
43.0
33.3
3P%
29.5
40.3
rebounds / game
52.0
24.0
assists / game
21.5
17.3
turnovers / game
17.0
45.3
points in paint / game
46.0

Rating Trend

GS · DEN · 6 days
Golden State WarriorsDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 7−3
Mar 29at DENDEN 116 − 93
Feb 22at GSGS 128 − 117
Nov 7, 2025at DENDEN 129 − 104
Oct 23, 2025at GSGS 137 − 131
Apr 4, 2025at GSGS 118 − 104
Mar 17, 2025at GSDEN 114 − 105
Dec 3, 2024at DENDEN 119 − 115
Feb 25, 2024at GSDEN 119 − 103
Jan 4, 2024at GSDEN 130 − 127
Dec 25, 2023at DENDEN 120 − 114

GS · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Oct 24at PHX122 − 131L
Oct 23vs MEM108 − 111L
Oct 21at LAL105 − 127L
Apr 12at LAC110 − 115L
Apr 10at SAC118 − 124L
Apr 9vs LAL103 − 119L
Apr 7vs SAC110 − 105W
Apr 5vs HOU116 − 117L
Apr 2vs CLE111 − 118L
Apr 1vs SA113 − 127L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 24vs NO141 − 135W
Oct 22at OKC84 − 96L
Apr 30at MIN98 − 110L
Apr 27vs MIN125 − 113W
Apr 25at MIN96 − 112L
Apr 23at MIN96 − 113L
Apr 20vs MIN114 − 119L
Apr 18vs MIN116 − 105W
Apr 12at SA128 − 118W
Apr 10vs OKC127 − 107W