bayesRatings

Magic at Suns

NBA · Thursday, Nov 5 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 5

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
PHX by 2.0
Expected score
PHX 112.2 – 110.2 ORL
Expected total
222.3
MagicThe matchupSuns
+125Our fair odds−125
110.2Expected points112.2
+0.01Power rating+0.01
107.0Points / game109.3
119.5Allowed / game123.7
44.0FG%45.7
31.23P%31.0
41.2Rebounds / game39.7
1−3Season record1−2
3−7Last 103−7
Izaiyah Nelson F · Jalen Suggs G
Jonathan Isaac F · Noah Penda F
Paolo Banchero FOutMark Williams C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · PHX chance
Our model fair44.5%55.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+12544%————
PHXPhoenix Suns−12556%————
SpreadPHX by 2.0
ORLOrlando Magic+2our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns−2our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.3
Over222.3our total————
Under222.3our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Phoenix Suns by 2.0 expected
Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 3%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 3%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%
← ORL wins byPHX wins by →
Phoenix Suns wins by 5 or more46%
Phoenix Suns wins by 10 or more31%
Phoenix Suns wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.3 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.569%
Total over 222.549%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Orlando Magic
GDesmond Banelast game
GAnthony Blacklast game
GJase Richardsonlast game
FFranz Wagnerlast game
CWendell Carter Jr.last game
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerlast game
GJalen Greenlast game
FDillon Brookslast game
FMiles Bridgeslast game
CKhaman Maluachlast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·PHX
Oct 30 at TOR
last game
Oct 30 vs DEN
5 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Orlando Magic
ORLIzaiyah Nelson FOut
ORLJalen Suggs G · right knee, back about Nov 10Out
ORLJonathan Isaac F · left knee, back about Nov 10Out
ORLNoah Penda F · right hamstring, back about Nov 18Out
ORLPaolo Banchero F · right ankle sprain, back about Nov 22Out
Phoenix Suns
PHXMark Williams C · left shoulder surgery, back about Feb 3, 2027Out
PHXOso Ighodaro F · oblique strainDay-to-day

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
ORL·PHX
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
107.0
points / game
109.3
119.5
points allowed / game
123.7
1−3
season record
1−2
0−2
home record
1−0
1−1
away record
0−2
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−7
44.0
FG%
45.7
31.2
3P%
31.0
41.2
rebounds / game
39.7
26.0
assists / game
25.3
18.0
turnovers / game
15.3
45.0
points in paint / game
46.0

Rating Trend

ORL · PHX · 10 days
Orlando MagicPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 5−5
Mar 31at ORLORL 115 − 111
Feb 21at PHXPHX 113 − 110
Dec 8, 2024at ORLORL 115 − 110
Nov 18, 2024at PHXORL 109 − 99
Jan 28, 2024at ORLORL 113 − 98
Dec 31, 2023at PHXPHX 112 − 107
Mar 16, 2023at PHXPHX 116 − 113
Nov 11, 2022at ORLORL 114 − 97
Mar 8, 2022at ORLPHX 102 − 99
Feb 12, 2022at PHXPHX 132 − 105

ORL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 28at TOR99 − 129L
Oct 25at NY111 − 102W
Oct 23vs MIN93 − 115L
Oct 21vs ATL125 − 132L
May 3at DET94 − 116L
May 1vs DET79 − 93L
Apr 29at DET109 − 116L
Apr 27vs DET94 − 88W
Apr 25vs DET113 − 105W
Apr 22at DET83 − 98L

PHX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 26at OKC114 − 125L
Oct 24vs GS131 − 122W
Oct 21at POR83 − 124L
Apr 27vs OKC122 − 131L
Apr 25vs OKC109 − 121L
Apr 22at OKC107 − 120L
Apr 19at OKC84 − 119L
Apr 12at OKC135 − 103W
Apr 10at LAL73 − 101L
Apr 8vs DAL112 − 107W