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Suns at Thunder

NBA · Monday, Oct 26 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final PHX 114 – OKC 125
← NBA / Oct 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHX27263229114
OKC33343226125
Team box
PHX·OKC
39-91
field goals
44-86
18-50
3-pointers
12-32
18-25
free throws
25-29
38
rebounds
48
29
assists
24
13
turnovers
17
38
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ajay MitchellOKC253025
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC302633
Jalen GreenPHX312044
Dillon BrooksPHX331955
Jared McCainOKC301834
Miles BridgesPHX321784

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +24
PHX +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 24 · PHX 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHX 25%, OKC 75% · Updated Oct 26

Expected margin
OKC by 9.2
Expected score
OKC 114.6 – 105.5 PHX
Expected total
220.1
SunsThe matchupThunder
+300Our fair odds−300
105.5Expected points114.6
+0.02Power rating+1.39
107.0Points / game106.7
123.0Allowed / game96.3
47.0FG%42.7
28.53P%34.7
40.5Rebounds / game46.3
1−1Season record3−0
3−7Last 106−4
Drew Timme · Mark Williams
Oso IghodaroOutCason Wallace · Chet Holmgren
Jalen Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHX chance · OKC chance
Our model fair25.0%75.0%
Kalshi27.3%76.3%
Polymarket US26.3%77.3%
ProphetX27.1%75.2%
Novig26.0%74.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:57 PM CT
Moneyline
PHXPhoenix Suns+30025%+26627.3%+28026.3%+26927.1%+28526.0%
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−30075%−32276.3%−34077.3%−30375.2%−29274.5%
SpreadOKC by 9.2
PHXPhoenix Suns+9.2our margin+8.5 −12154.7%+8.5 −11653.7%+8.5 −11252.9%+8.5 −11152.5%
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−9.2our margin−8.5 −10350.7%−8.5 −10350.7%−8.5 +10149.8%−8.5 +10449.0%
Totalwe expect 220.1
Over220.1our totalo222.5 +10149.7%o222.5 +10149.7%o222.5 +10449.1%o222.5 +10848.0%
Under220.1our totalu222.5 −12154.7%u222.5 −12154.7%u222.5 −11453.3%u222.5 −11353.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 9.2 expected
Phoenix Suns by 51 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 50 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%
← PHX wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more64%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more49%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.1 expected
173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.569%
Total over 220.549%
Total over 230.529%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CKhaman Maluachstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GKenrich Williamsstarted
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GJared McCainstarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHX·OKC
Oct 24 vs GS
last game
Oct 25 vs LAC
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 3:30 PM ET
Phoenix Suns
PHXDrew Timme · g league - two-wayOut
PHXMark Williams · left shoulder surgeryOut
PHXOso Ighodaro · right oblique strainOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCCason Wallace · left shoulder sorenessOut
OKCChet Holmgren · right patellar tendinitisOut
OKCJalen Williams · left lower leg injuryOut
OKCNikola Topic · low back surgeryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right knee surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
PHX·OKC
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+1.39
107.0
points / game
106.7
123.0
points allowed / game
96.3
1−1
season record
3−0
1−0
home record
2−0
0−1
away record
1−0
W1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
47.0
FG%
42.7
28.5
3P%
34.7
40.5
rebounds / game
46.3
23.5
assists / game
23.0
16.5
turnovers / game
14.3
50.0
points in paint / game
50.7

Rating Trend

PHX · OKC · 6 days
Phoenix SunsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 8−2
Apr 27at PHXOKC 131 − 122post
Apr 25at PHXOKC 121 − 109post
Apr 22at OKCOKC 120 − 107post
Apr 19at OKCOKC 119 − 84post
Apr 12at OKCPHX 135 − 103
Feb 11at PHXOKC 136 − 109
Jan 4at PHXPHX 108 − 105
Dec 10, 2025at OKCOKC 138 − 89
Nov 28, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 119
Apr 9, 2025at PHXOKC 125 − 112

PHX · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 24vs GS131 − 122W
Oct 21at POR83 − 124L
Apr 27vs OKC122 − 131L
Apr 25vs OKC109 − 121L
Apr 22at OKC107 − 120L
Apr 19at OKC84 − 119L
Apr 12at OKC135 − 103W
Apr 10at LAL73 − 101L
Apr 8vs DAL112 − 107W
Apr 7vs HOU105 − 119L

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Oct 25vs LAC108 − 101W
Oct 22vs DEN96 − 84W
Oct 20at SA116 − 104W
May 30vs SA103 − 111L
May 28at SA91 − 118L
May 26vs SA127 − 114W
May 24at SA82 − 103L
May 22at SA123 − 108W
May 20vs SA122 − 113W
May 18vs SA115 − 122L