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Steelers at Bengals

NFL · Thursday, Oct 16 · 7:15 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final PIT 31 – CIN 33
← NFL / Oct 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT7371431
CIN01731333
Team box
PIT·CIN
396
total yards
470
249
passing yards
328
147
rushing yards
142
19
first downs
27
7-10
third downs
7-14
2
turnovers
0
25:28
time of possession
34:32
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT23/3424942
Joe FlaccoCIN31/4734230
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT161270
Chase BrownCIN111080
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Pat FreiermuthPIT51112
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN161611

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +10
PIT +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 10 · PIT 10lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 52%, CIN 48% · Updated Oct 16, 2025

Expected margin
PIT by 2.4
Expected score
PIT 25.1 – 22.8 CIN
Expected total
47.9
SteelersThe matchupBengals
−107Our fair odds+107
25.1Expected points22.8
+0.15Power rating−0.25
23.8Points / game17.2
21.4Allowed / game30.5
278Total yards / game235
5.1Yards / play4.2
194Passing yards / game178
4−1Season record2−4
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · CIN chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers−10752%————
CINCincinnati Bengals+10748%————
SpreadPIT by 2.4
PITPittsburgh Steelers−2.4our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals+2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.9
Over47.9our total————
Under47.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.4 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 5%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 9%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%
← PIT wins byCIN wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more53%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more34%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.9 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.568%
Total over 47.548%
Total over 54.531%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 73% completions, 191 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
CINJoe Flacco · last 3 games: 57% completions, 182 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·CIN
Oct 12, 2025 vs CLE
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at GB
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
PIT·CIN
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
23.8
points / game
17.2
21.4
points allowed / game
30.5
4−1
season record
2−4
2−1
home record
1−1
2−0
away record
1−3
W3
streak
L4
4−6
last 10
6−4
278
total yards / game
235
5.1
yards / play
4.2
194
passing yards / game
178
84
rushing yards / game
57
17.4
first downs / game
16.2
0.6
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

PIT · CIN · 16 days
Pittsburgh SteelersCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CIN 4−4
Jan 4, 2025at PITCIN 19 − 17
Dec 1, 2024at CINPIT 44 − 38
Dec 23, 2023at PITPIT 34 − 11
Nov 26, 2023at CINPIT 16 − 10
Nov 20, 2022at PITCIN 37 − 30
Sep 11, 2022at CINPIT 23 − 20
Nov 28, 2021at CINCIN 41 − 10
Sep 26, 2021at PITCIN 24 − 10

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L
Jan 4, 2025vs CIN17 − 19L
Dec 25, 2024vs KC10 − 29L
Dec 21, 2024at BAL17 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024at PHI13 − 27L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L4
Oct 12, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025vs DET24 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at DEN3 − 28L
Sep 21, 2025at MIN10 − 48L
Sep 14, 2025vs JAX31 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025at CLE17 − 16W
Jan 4, 2025at PIT19 − 17W
Dec 28, 2024vs DEN30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs CLE24 − 6W
Dec 15, 2024at TEN37 − 27W