bayesRatings

Falcons at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 7:20 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final ATL 10 – SF 20
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL037010
SF0103720
Team box
ATL·SF
292
total yards
324
230
passing yards
150
62
rushing yards
174
19
first downs
23
5-11
third downs
9-15
1
turnovers
1
27:50
time of possession
32:10
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.ATL21/3824110
Mac JonesSF17/2615201
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL14400
Christian McCaffreySF241292
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Darnell MooneyATL3680
Christian McCaffreySF7720

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +10
ATL +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 10 · ATL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 40%, SF 60% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
SF by 3.6
Expected score
SF 23.7 – 20.1 ATL
Expected total
43.7
FalconsThe matchup49ers
+149Our fair odds−149
20.1Expected points23.7
+0.00Power rating+0.09
20.0Points / game20.8
20.0Allowed / game21.3
379Total yards / game374
5.7Yards / play5.4
228Passing yards / game292
3−2Season record4−2
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · SF chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+14940%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−14960%————
SpreadSF by 3.6
ATLAtlanta Falcons+3.6our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−3.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.7
Over43.7our total————
Under43.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 3.6 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 8%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%
← ATL wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more53%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more37%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.7 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 62% completions, 245 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
SFMac Jones · last 3 games: 67% completions, 324 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·SF
Oct 13, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at TB
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
ATL·SF
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
20.0
points / game
20.8
20.0
points allowed / game
21.3
3−2
season record
4−2
2−1
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
3−1
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
379
total yards / game
374
5.7
yards / play
5.4
228
passing yards / game
292
151
rushing yards / game
82
21.0
first downs / game
22.0
1.0
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

ATL · SF · 17 days
Atlanta FalconsSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · SF 1−1
Oct 16, 2022at ATLATL 28 − 14
Dec 19, 2021at SFSF 31 − 13

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L
Dec 29, 2024at WSH24 − 30L
Dec 22, 2024vs NYG34 − 7W
Dec 16, 2024at LV15 − 9W
Dec 8, 2024at MIN21 − 42L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs ARI16 − 15W
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L
Dec 30, 2024vs DET34 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at MIA17 − 29L
Dec 12, 2024vs LAR6 − 12L