bayesRatings

Packers at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 3:25 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final GB 27 – ARI 23
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB0671427
ARI3107323
Team box
GB·ARI
262
total yards
330
168
passing yards
236
94
rushing yards
94
19
first downs
23
3-10
third downs
7-14
0
turnovers
1
25:50
time of possession
34:10
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB19/2917910
Jacoby BrissettARI25/3627920
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Josh JacobsGB13552
Bam KnightARI14570
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Romeo DoubsGB6720
Trey McBrideARI10742

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +10
GB +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 10 · GB 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 58%, ARI 42% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 3.9
Expected score
GB 24.3 – 20.4 ARI
Expected total
44.7
PackersThe matchupCardinals
−139Our fair odds+139
24.3Expected points20.4
+0.51Power rating−0.16
26.2Points / game21.7
20.4Allowed / game21.2
360Total yards / game307
5.8Yards / play5.0
237Passing yards / game194
3−1−1Season record2−4
5−4−1Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · ARI chance
Our model fair58.1%41.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers−13958%————
ARIArizona Cardinals+13942%————
SpreadGB by 3.9
GBGreen Bay Packers−3.9our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals+3.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.7
Over44.7our total————
Under44.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 3.9 expected
Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 9%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 7%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%
← GB wins byARI wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more57%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more39%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more30%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.7 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 72% completions, 260 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 60% completions, 106 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·ARI
Oct 12, 2025 vs CIN
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at IND
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
GB·ARI
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
26.2
points / game
21.7
20.4
points allowed / game
21.2
3−1−1
season record
2−4
3−0
home record
1−2
0−1−1
away record
1−2
W1
streak
L4
5−4−1
last 10
4−6
360
total yards / game
307
5.8
yards / play
5.0
237
passing yards / game
194
122
rushing yards / game
113
21.2
first downs / game
18.3
0.6
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

GB · ARI · 17 days
Green Bay PackersArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · ARI 0−2
Oct 13, 2024at GBGB 34 − 13
Oct 28, 2021at ARIGB 24 − 21

GB · Last 10

5−4−1 · streak W1
Oct 12, 2025vs CIN27 − 18W
Sep 28, 2025at DAL40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CLE10 − 13L
Sep 11, 2025vs WSH27 − 18W
Sep 7, 2025vs DET27 − 13W
Jan 12, 2025at PHI10 − 22L
Jan 5, 2025vs CHI22 − 24L
Dec 29, 2024at MIN25 − 27L
Dec 23, 2024vs NO34 − 0W
Dec 15, 2024at SEA30 − 13W

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Oct 12, 2025at IND27 − 31L
Oct 5, 2025vs TEN21 − 22L
Sep 25, 2025vs SEA20 − 23L
Sep 21, 2025at SF15 − 16L
Sep 14, 2025vs CAR27 − 22W
Sep 7, 2025at NO20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs SF47 − 24W
Dec 28, 2024at LAR9 − 13L
Dec 22, 2024at CAR30 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs NE30 − 17W