bayesRatings

Saints at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 12:00 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final NO 14 – CHI 26
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO077014
CHI3173326
Team box
NO·CHI
253
total yards
386
209
passing yards
164
44
rushing yards
222
16
first downs
23
3-10
third downs
3-12
4
turnovers
1
23:41
time of possession
36:19
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Spencer RattlerNO20/3223323
Caleb WilliamsCHI15/2617201
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Alvin KamaraNO11280
D'Andre SwiftCHI191241
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Chris OlaveNO5982
DJ MooreCHI3430

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +20
NO +20
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 20 · NO 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 31%, CHI 69% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
CHI by 7.2
Expected score
CHI 25.7 – 18.4 NO
Expected total
44.1
SaintsThe matchupBears
+222Our fair odds−222
18.4Expected points25.7
−0.61Power rating−0.08
18.5Points / game25.2
26.7Allowed / game28.2
305Total yards / game340
4.8Yards / play5.6
196Passing yards / game228
1−5Season record3−2
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · CHI chance
Our model fair31.0%69.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+22231%————
CHIChicago Bears−22269%————
SpreadCHI by 7.2
NONew Orleans Saints+7.2our margin————
CHIChicago Bears−7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.1
Over44.1our total————
Under44.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Chicago Bears by 7.2 expected
New Orleans Saints by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 6%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 25 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 32 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 46 points: <1%
← NO wins byCHI wins by →
Chicago Bears wins by 3 or more63%
Chicago Bears wins by 7 or more48%
Chicago Bears wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.1 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.567%
Total over 44.546%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOSpencer Rattler · last 3 games: 70% completions, 193 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 62% completions, 254 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·CHI
Oct 12, 2025 vs NE
last game
Oct 13, 2025 at WSH
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
NO·CHI
−0.61
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
18.5
points / game
25.2
26.7
points allowed / game
28.2
1−5
season record
3−2
1−3
home record
1−1
0−2
away record
2−1
L1
streak
W3
1−9
last 10
4−6
305
total yards / game
340
4.8
yards / play
5.6
196
passing yards / game
228
110
rushing yards / game
112
20.0
first downs / game
18.6
0.7
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

NO · CHI · 17 days
New Orleans SaintsChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CHI 0−1
Nov 5, 2023at NONO 24 − 17

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Oct 12, 2025vs NE19 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025vs NYG26 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025at BUF19 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025at SEA13 − 44L
Sep 14, 2025vs SF21 − 26L
Sep 7, 2025vs ARI13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025at TB19 − 27L
Dec 29, 2024vs LV10 − 25L
Dec 23, 2024at GB0 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs WSH19 − 20L

CHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W
Dec 26, 2024vs SEA3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2024vs DET17 − 34L
Dec 16, 2024at MIN12 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at SF13 − 38L