bayesRatings

Eagles at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 12:00 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final PHI 28 – MIN 22
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PHI777728
MIN3310622
Team box
PHI·MIN
361
total yards
387
316
passing yards
298
45
rushing yards
89
13
first downs
21
3-10
third downs
7-15
0
turnovers
2
25:58
time of possession
34:02
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jalen HurtsPHI19/2332630
Carson WentzMIN26/4231302
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Saquon BarkleyPHI18440
Jordan MasonMIN15571
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DeVonta SmithPHI91831
Jordan AddisonMIN91280

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +12
PHI +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 0 · PHI 12lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 49%, MIN 51% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 0.1
Expected score
PHI 22.6 – 22.5 MIN
Expected total
45.1
EaglesThe matchupVikings
+103Our fair odds−103
22.6Expected points22.5
+0.64Power rating+0.34
23.7Points / game24.6
23.8Allowed / game19.4
274Total yards / game305
4.7Yards / play5.3
179Passing yards / game198
4−2Season record3−2
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIN chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles+10349%————
MINMinnesota Vikings−10351%————
SpreadPHI by 0.1
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.1
Over45.1our total————
Under45.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 0.1 expected
Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 5%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 9%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%
← PHI wins byMIN wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more47%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more29%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.1 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.546%
Total over 52.528%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 65% completions, 231 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
MINCarson Wentz · last 3 games: 69% completions, 253 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIN
Oct 9, 2025 at NYG
last game
Oct 5, 2025 at CLE
9 days
days of rest
13 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
PHI·MIN
+0.64
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
23.7
points / game
24.6
23.8
points allowed / game
19.4
4−2
season record
3−2
2−1
home record
1−1
2−1
away record
2−1
L2
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
6−4
274
total yards / game
305
4.7
yards / play
5.3
179
passing yards / game
198
95
rushing yards / game
107
17.8
first downs / game
17.8
0.5
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

PHI · MIN · 17 days
Philadelphia EaglesMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · MIN 0−2
Sep 14, 2023at PHIPHI 34 − 28
Sep 19, 2022at PHIPHI 24 − 7

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
Oct 9, 2025at NYG17 − 34L
Oct 5, 2025vs DEN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at TB31 − 25W
Sep 21, 2025vs LAR33 − 26W
Sep 14, 2025at KC20 − 17W
Sep 4, 2025vs DAL24 − 20W
Feb 9, 2025vs KC40 − 22W
Jan 26, 2025vs WSH55 − 23W
Jan 19, 2025vs LAR28 − 22W
Jan 12, 2025vs GB22 − 10W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 5, 2025at CLE21 − 17W
Sep 28, 2025at PIT21 − 24L
Sep 21, 2025vs CIN48 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at DET9 − 31L
Dec 29, 2024vs GB27 − 25W
Dec 22, 2024at SEA27 − 24W
Dec 16, 2024vs CHI30 − 12W