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Texans at Seahawks

NFL · Monday, Oct 20 · 9:00 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final HOU 19 – SEA 27
← NFL / Oct 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU066719
SEA14013027
Team box
HOU·SEA
254
total yards
316
198
passing yards
198
56
rushing yards
118
18
first downs
19
2-15
third downs
2-14
1
turnovers
4
27:43
time of possession
32:17
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU23/4922911
Sam DarnoldSEA17/3121311
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
C.J. StroudHOU2250
Kenneth Walker IIISEA17660
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Dalton SchultzHOU9980
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA81231

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +15
HOU +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 15 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 40%, SEA 60% · Updated Oct 20, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 1.9
Expected score
SEA 20.6 – 18.7 HOU
Expected total
39.3
TexansThe matchupSeahawks
+152Our fair odds−152
18.7Expected points20.6
+0.22Power rating+0.34
21.6Points / game27.7
12.2Allowed / game19.5
314Total yards / game356
5.3Yards / play6.3
198Passing yards / game252
2−3Season record4−2
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · SEA chance
Our model fair39.7%60.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans+15240%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−15260%————
SpreadSEA by 1.9
HOUHouston Texans+1.9our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−1.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.3
Over39.3our total————
Under39.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 1.9 expected
Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: <1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: <1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 3%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 3%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 8%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%
← HOU wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more48%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more32%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.3 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.548%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 75% completions, 227 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 71% completions, 293 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·SEA
Oct 5, 2025 at BAL
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at JAX
14 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
HOU·SEA
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
21.6
points / game
27.7
12.2
points allowed / game
19.5
2−3
season record
4−2
1−1
home record
1−2
1−2
away record
3−0
W2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
314
total yards / game
356
5.3
yards / play
6.3
198
passing yards / game
252
116
rushing yards / game
104
18.0
first downs / game
19.5
1.0
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

HOU · SEA · 18 days
Houston TexansSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · SEA 1−0
Dec 12, 2021at HOUSEA 33 − 13

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W
Sep 21, 2025at JAX10 − 17L
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L
Jan 11, 2025vs LAC32 − 12W
Jan 5, 2025at TEN23 − 14W
Dec 25, 2024vs BAL2 − 31L
Dec 21, 2024at KC19 − 27L

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W
Dec 26, 2024at CHI6 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs MIN24 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs GB13 − 30L