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Senators at Sabres

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 6:30 PM CT · KeyBank Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.5 – 3.2 OTT
Expected total
6.7
SenatorsThe matchupSabres
+129Our fair odds−129
3.2Expected goals3.5
+0.12Power rating+0.17
3.1Goals / game3.1
3.1Allowed / game3.6
25.1Shots / game27.8
52.0Faceoff %47.2
25.4Hits / game19.3
8−6Season record6−7
5−5Last 104−6
Warren Foegele LW · Linus Ullmark G
William Eklund LWOutJiri Kulich C · Konsta Helenius C
Alex Lyon G · Conor Timmins D
Justin Danforth RW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · BUF chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshi48.7%58.7%
Polymarket US50.7%56.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:32 AM CTPolymarket US4:33 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+12944%+10548.7%−10350.7%——
BUFBuffalo Sabres−12956%−14258.7%−13156.7%——
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa Senators+0.3our margin—−1.5 +11446.7%——
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.3our margin—+1.5 −1063999.1%——
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total—o5.5 −34077.3%——
Under6.7our total—u5.5 −26372.4%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 10%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 18%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 22%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 10%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 13%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 7%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 3%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: 1%
← OTT wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more34%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more24%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
OTTSamuel Ersson G · last 5 starts: .862 save %, 4.30 GAAexpected
BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 3.49 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·BUF
Oct 29 at LA
last game
Oct 29 at ANA
5 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Ottawa Senators
OTTWarren Foegele LW · right knee, back about Nov 7Out
OTTAndre Burakovsky LW · lower bodyDay-to-day
OTTLinus Ullmark G · lower body strainIR
OTTWilliam Eklund LW · ankle, back about Jan 5, 2027IR
Buffalo Sabres
BUFJiri Kulich C · concussion, back about Nov 4Out
BUFKonsta Helenius C · upper body, back about Nov 4Out
BUFAlex Lyon G · upper bodyIR
BUFConor Timmins DIR
BUFJustin Danforth RW · upper bodyIR
BUFMatt Grzelcyk D · lower bodyIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
OTT·BUF
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
3.1
goals / game
3.1
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.6
8−6
season record
6−7
5−2
home record
3−3
3−4
away record
3−4
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
25.1
shots / game
27.8
52.0
faceoff %
47.2
25.4
hits / game
19.3
16.0
blocked shots / game
11.9
4.4
takeaways / game
3.9
14.9
giveaways / game
16.5

Rating Trend

OTT · BUF · 31 days
Ottawa SenatorsBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 7−3
Apr 2at OTTOTT 4 − 1
Dec 23, 2025at OTTBUF 3 − 2 OT
Oct 15, 2025at BUFBUF 8 − 4
Apr 1, 2025at OTTBUF 5 − 2
Mar 25, 2025at BUFBUF 3 − 2
Jan 9, 2025at OTTBUF 4 − 0
Nov 5, 2024at BUFBUF 5 − 1
Mar 27, 2024at BUFOTT 6 − 2
Jan 11, 2024at BUFBUF 5 − 3
Dec 31, 2023at OTTOTT 5 − 1

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 29at LA5 − 6L
Oct 27at VGK1 − 4L
Oct 24vs NYR7 − 4W
Oct 22vs SJ2 − 6L
Oct 21vs FLA5 − 1W
Oct 17at PHI1 − 3L
Oct 15vs NYI2 − 1W
Oct 13vs STL2 − 7L
Oct 12at NJ4 − 1W
Oct 10vs NSH3 − 2W

BUF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 29at ANA7 − 6W
Oct 27at SJ2 − 0W
Oct 24at WSH3 − 4L
Oct 21vs PHI1 − 3L
Oct 17at MTL3 − 4L
Oct 15at TOR5 − 4W
Oct 13at MTL3 − 4L
Oct 12vs FLA5 − 3W
Oct 10vs UTAH1 − 4L
Oct 8vs DAL0 − 4L