bayesRatings

Lightning at Wild

NHL · Saturday, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM CT · Grand Casino Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 3.1 – 3.1 TB
Expected total
6.3
LightningThe matchupWild
+110Our fair odds−110
3.1Expected goals3.1
+0.29Power rating+0.21
3.7Goals / game3.1
3.2Allowed / game2.3
30.4Shots / game30.5
48.0Faceoff %49.3
21.8Hits / game23.0
8−4Season record9−6
7−3Last 106−4
Erik Cernak D · Zemgus Girgensons C
Yanni Gourde COutBrock Faber D · Jared Spurgeon D
Marcus Foligno LW · Nick Foligno LW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIN chance
Our model fair47.5%52.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning+11048%————
MINMinnesota Wild−11052%————
Spreadabout even
TBTampa Bay LightningPKour margin————
MINMinnesota WildPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 6%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 10%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 18%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 24%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 9%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 11%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 5%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 2%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%
← TB wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more28%
Minnesota Wild wins by 3 or more19%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
TBnot announced yet
MINnot announced yet

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIN
Oct 31 at NSH
last game
Oct 29 vs NYI
6 days
days of rest
8 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
0
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBErik Cernak D · undisclosedOut
TBZemgus Girgensons C · lower bodyOut
TBYanni Gourde C · hip surgery, back about Dec 2IR
Minnesota Wild
MINBrock Faber D · skull surgeryIR
MINJared Spurgeon D · undisclosedIR
MINMarcus Foligno LW · lower bodyIR
MINNick Foligno LW · upper bodyIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
TB·MIN
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
3.7
goals / game
3.1
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.3
8−4
season record
9−6
6−0
home record
4−1
2−4
away record
5−5
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
30.4
shots / game
30.5
48.0
faceoff %
49.3
21.8
hits / game
23.0
13.6
blocked shots / game
14.0
3.4
takeaways / game
4.4
15.9
giveaways / game
16.9

Rating Trend

TB · MIN · 32 days
Tampa Bay LightningMinnesota Wild
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 5−5
Oct 8at TBTB 3 − 2
Mar 24at TBTB 6 − 3
Mar 3at MINMIN 5 − 1
Nov 1, 2024at MINMIN 5 − 3
Oct 24, 2024at TBMIN 4 − 2
Jan 18, 2024at TBTB 7 − 3
Jan 4, 2024at MINTB 4 − 1
Jan 24, 2023at TBTB 4 − 2
Jan 4, 2023at MINMIN 5 − 1
Nov 28, 2021at MINMIN 4 − 2

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 29vs WPG6 − 4W
Oct 24at UTAH4 − 5L
Oct 23at COL3 − 6L
Oct 20at VGK6 − 2W
Oct 17vs VAN4 − 2W
Oct 15vs SEA4 − 3W
Oct 13at NYR1 − 4L
Oct 10at NYI5 − 3W
Oct 8vs MIN3 − 2W
Oct 5vs PHI4 − 1W

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 29vs NYI3 − 4L
Oct 27at UTAH3 − 1W
Oct 25at VAN4 − 2W
Oct 24at SEA5 − 1W
Oct 22at CGY1 − 2L
Oct 20at EDM3 − 4L
Oct 18vs CBJ2 − 1W
Oct 15vs STL5 − 4W
Oct 13at WPG2 − 5L
Oct 12vs VGK4 − 2W