bayesRatings

Reds at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, Sep 27 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final CIN 1 – TOR 5
← MLB / Sep 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CIN001000000170
TOR02200001550
Team box
CIN·TOR
7
hits
5
0
home runs
2
1
walks
3
7
strikeouts
9
136
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR1-2112
Charles McAdooTOR1-3112
Carlos JorgeCIN2-4001
Oswaldo CabreraCIN2-2100
JJ BledayCIN2-4000
Brett BatemanTOR2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Williamson (L)CIN3.04433
Max Scherzer (W)TOR7.06117

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
CIN +4
123456789
largest lead: TOR 4 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 44%, TOR 56% · Updated Sep 27

Expected margin
TOR by 0.7
Expected score
TOR 4.6 – 3.9 CIN
Expected total
8.5
RedsThe matchupBlue Jays
+125Our fair odds−125
3.9Expected runs4.6
−0.13Power rating+0.02
4.1Runs / game4.0
5.1Allowed / game4.3
7.6Hits / game8.3
1.32Home runs / game0.93
3.5Walks drawn / game2.8
75−86Season record78−83
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · TOR chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Reds+12544%+14041.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12556%−16862.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.7
CINCincinnati Reds+0.7our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.7 expected
Cincinnati Reds by 13 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 5%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 9%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← CIN wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more42%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more31%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CINBrandon Williamson SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 4.40 ERA, 11 Kstarted
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·TOR
Sep 26 at TOR
last game
Sep 26 vs CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 161+ games
CIN·TOR
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
75−86
season record
78−83
38−43
home record
41−39
37−43
away record
37−44
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.6
hits / game
8.3
1.32
home runs / game
0.93
3.5
walks drawn / game
2.8
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.55
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

CIN · TOR · 183 days
Cincinnati RedsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Sep 26at TORCIN 5 − 1
Sep 25at TORTOR 6 − 5
Sep 3, 2025at CINTOR 13 − 9
Sep 2, 2025at CINTOR 12 − 9
Sep 1, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Aug 21, 2024at TORCIN 11 − 7
Aug 20, 2024at TORTOR 10 − 3
Aug 19, 2024at TORCIN 6 − 3
Aug 20, 2023at CINTOR 10 − 3
Aug 19, 2023at CINTOR 4 − 3

CIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 26at TOR5 − 1W
Sep 25at TOR5 − 6L
Sep 24at ATL7 − 6W
Sep 23at ATL2 − 3L
Sep 22at ATL4 − 0W
Sep 20vs CHC1 − 9L
Sep 19vs CHC2 − 5L
Sep 18vs CHC6 − 4W
Sep 17vs LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16vs LAD6 − 2W

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 26vs CIN1 − 5L
Sep 25vs CIN6 − 5W
Sep 23at BAL2 − 4L
Sep 23at BAL2 − 4L
Sep 21at BAL3 − 4L
Sep 20at TEX7 − 2W
Sep 19at TEX2 − 6L
Sep 18at TEX1 − 7L
Sep 16vs DET5 − 1W
Sep 15vs DET1 − 10L