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Lakers at Jazz

NBA · Sunday, Oct 25 · 4:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final LAL 132 – UTAH 123
← NBA / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAL29452929132
UTAH47242923123
Team box
LAL·UTAH
40-82
field goals
46-95
20-47
3-pointers
10-35
32-38
free throws
21-27
31
rebounds
52
19
assists
29
10
turnovers
17
30
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL3852810
Austin ReavesLAL362914
Lauri MarkkanenUTAH382871
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH3324910
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH332021
Ace BaileyUTAH2917124

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +18
LAL +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: UTAH 18 · LAL 9lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAL 70%, UTAH 30% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
LAL by 7.7
Expected score
LAL 123.6 – 115.9 UTAH
Expected total
239.5
LakersThe matchupJazz
−230Our fair odds+230
123.6Expected points115.9
+0.47Power rating−0.98
126.0Points / game111.5
111.0Allowed / game121.0
57.5FG%47.5
41.53P%35.0
40.0Rebounds / game40.0
2−0Season record1−1
4−6Last 102−8
Adou Thiero · Cameron CarrOutHarrison Ingram · Jusuf Nurkic
Kobe Bufkin · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair69.7%30.3%
Kalshi70.5%33.5%
Polymarket US70.5%33.5%
ProphetX69.4%33.1%
Novig68.5%32.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 4:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 3:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 3:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 3:58 PM CT
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−23070%−23970.5%−23970.5%−22769.4%−21768.5%
UTAHUtah Jazz+23030%+19833.5%+19833.5%+20233.1%+21232.0%
SpreadLAL by 7.7
LALLos Angeles Lakers−7.7our margin−6.5 −10751.8%−6.5 −10751.7%−6.5 −10451.0%−6.5 +10050.0%
UTAHUtah Jazz+7.7our margin+6.5 −11252.7%+6.5 −11252.7%+6.5 −10852.0%+6.5 −10451.0%
Totalwe expect 239.5
Over239.5our totalo237.5 −12154.7%o237.5 −11653.7%o237.5 −11453.3%o237.5 −10852.0%
Under239.5our totalu237.5 −10350.7%u237.5 −10350.7%u237.5 +10249.6%u237.5 +10648.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 7.7 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 1 point: 2%Utah Jazz by 2 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 3 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 4 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 5 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 6 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 7 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 8 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 9 points: 2%Utah Jazz by 10 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 11 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 12 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 13 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 14 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 15 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 16 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 17 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 18 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 19 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 20 points: 1%Utah Jazz by 21 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 22 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 23 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 24 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 25 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 26 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 27 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 28 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 29 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 30 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 31 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 32 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 33 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 34 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 35 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 36 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 37 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 38 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 39 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 40 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 41 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 42 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 43 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 44 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 45 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 46 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 47 points: <1%Utah Jazz by 48 points: <1%
← LAL wins byUTAH wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more62%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more45%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

239.5 expected
189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: <1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 1%223 points: 1%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 2%253 points: 2%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: 1%272 points: 1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%299 points: <1%300 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 229.568%
Total over 239.548%
Total over 249.531%
Total from 230 to 24937%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Los Angeles Lakers
GMatisse Thybullestarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FZiaire Williamsstarted
CWalker Kesslerstarted
Utah Jazz
GKeyonte Georgestarted
GAce Baileystarted
GDarryn Petersonstarted
FLauri Markkanenstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·UTAH
Oct 23 vs LAC
last game
Oct 23 vs NO
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 25, 12:15 PM ET
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee effusion / swellingOut
LALCameron Carr · right oblique strainOut
Utah Jazz
UTAHHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHJusuf Nurkic · right 2nd plantar plate tearOut
UTAHKobe Bufkin · g league - two-wayOut
UTAHTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
LAL·UTAH
+0.47
rating (0 = average)
−0.98
126.0
points / game
111.5
111.0
points allowed / game
121.0
2−0
season record
1−1
2−0
home record
1−0
0−0
away record
0−1
W2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
2−8
57.5
FG%
47.5
41.5
3P%
35.0
40.0
rebounds / game
40.0
28.5
assists / game
28.0
19.5
turnovers / game
18.0
62.0
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

LAL · UTAH · 5 days
Los Angeles LakersUtah Jazz
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · UTAH 2−8
Apr 12at LALLAL 131 − 107
Dec 18, 2025at UTAHLAL 143 − 135
Nov 23, 2025at UTAHLAL 108 − 106
Nov 18, 2025at LALLAL 140 − 126
Feb 12, 2025at UTAHUTAH 131 − 119
Feb 10, 2025at LALLAL 132 − 113
Dec 1, 2024at UTAHLAL 105 − 104
Nov 19, 2024at LALLAL 124 − 118
Feb 14, 2024at UTAHLAL 138 − 122
Jan 13, 2024at UTAHUTAH 132 − 125

LAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 23vs LAC125 − 117W
Oct 21vs GS127 − 105W
May 11vs OKC110 − 115L
May 9vs OKC108 − 131L
May 7at OKC107 − 125L
May 5at OKC90 − 108L
May 1at HOU98 − 78W
Apr 29vs HOU93 − 99L
Apr 26at HOU96 − 115L
Apr 24at HOU112 − 108W

UTAH · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 23vs NO120 − 119W
Oct 21at MEM103 − 123L
Apr 12at LAL107 − 131L
Apr 10vs MEM147 − 101W
Apr 7at NO137 − 156L
Apr 5at OKC111 − 146L
Apr 3at HOU106 − 140L
Apr 1vs DEN117 − 130L
Mar 30vs CLE113 − 122L
Mar 28at PHX109 − 134L