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Trail Blazers at Nuggets

NBA · Monday, Nov 2 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 2

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
DEN by 3.7
Expected score
DEN 119.7 – 116.1 POR
Expected total
235.8
Trail BlazersThe matchupNuggets
+153Our fair odds−153
116.1Expected points119.7
+0.14Power rating+0.42
122.8Points / game110.8
114.0Allowed / game114.0
49.0FG%45.5
35.83P%33.0
46.0Rebounds / game44.5
3−1Season record2−2
5−5Last 104−6
Chris Youngblood G · Ja Morant G
Shaedon Sharpe GOutAlpha Diallo F · Cameron Johnson F
Julian Strawther G · Spencer Jones F

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · DEN chance
Our model fair39.5%60.5%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket US41.7%63.6%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:29 AM CTPolymarket US4:29 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+15340%+13442.7%+14041.7%——
DENDenver Nuggets−15360%−16161.7%−17563.6%——
SpreadDEN by 3.7
PORPortland Trail Blazers+3.7our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−3.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 235.8
Over235.8our total————
Under235.8our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 3.7 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%
← POR wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more50%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more35%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

235.8 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 225.569%
Total over 235.549%
Total over 245.531%
Total from 226 to 24538%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Portland Trail Blazers
GDamian Lillardlast game
FToumani Camaralast game
FDeni Avdijalast game
CDonovan Clinganlast game
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraylast game
GChristian Braunlast game
FAaron Gordonlast game
FTrevon Brazilelast game
CNikola Jokiclast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·DEN
Oct 29 vs MEM
last game
Oct 30 at PHX
3 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Portland Trail Blazers
PORChris Youngblood G · left ankle sorenessOut
PORJa Morant G · left hamstring, back about Dec 1Out
PORShaedon Sharpe G · right knee surgery, back about Mar 2, 2027Out
PORRobert Williams III C · left kneeDay-to-day
Denver Nuggets
DENAlpha Diallo F · right personalOut
DENCameron Johnson F · right ankle sprainOut
DENJulian Strawther G · left knee sprain, back about Nov 29Out
DENSpencer Jones F · hamstring, back about Nov 2Out

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
POR·DEN
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.42
122.8
points / game
110.8
114.0
points allowed / game
114.0
3−1
season record
2−2
1−1
home record
1−1
2−0
away record
1−1
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
49.0
FG%
45.5
35.8
3P%
33.0
46.0
rebounds / game
44.5
28.8
assists / game
26.0
14.2
turnovers / game
16.0
53.0
points in paint / game
45.5

Rating Trend

POR · DEN · 10 days
Portland Trail BlazersDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 7−3
Apr 6at DENDEN 137 − 132
Mar 22at DENDEN 128 − 112
Feb 20at PORDEN 157 − 103
Oct 31, 2025at PORPOR 109 − 107
Mar 21, 2025at PORPOR 128 − 109
Feb 12, 2025at DENDEN 132 − 121
Feb 10, 2025at DENDEN 146 − 117
Dec 19, 2024at PORPOR 126 − 124
Mar 23, 2024at PORDEN 114 − 111
Feb 23, 2024at PORDEN 127 − 112

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 29vs MEM103 − 124L
Oct 27at LAL136 − 129W
Oct 23at SAC128 − 120W
Oct 21vs PHX124 − 83W
Apr 28at SA95 − 114L
Apr 26vs SA93 − 114L
Apr 24vs SA108 − 120L
Apr 21at SA106 − 103W
Apr 19at SA98 − 111L
Apr 12vs SAC122 − 110W

DEN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 28at NO104 − 91W
Oct 26vs GS114 − 134L
Oct 24vs NO141 − 135W
Oct 22at OKC84 − 96L
Apr 30at MIN98 − 110L
Apr 27vs MIN125 − 113W
Apr 25at MIN96 − 112L
Apr 23at MIN96 − 113L
Apr 20vs MIN114 − 119L
Apr 18vs MIN116 − 105W