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Lakers at Kings

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 4 · 9:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NBA / Nov 4

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
LAL by 9.0
Expected score
LAL 120.9 – 111.9 SAC
Expected total
232.8
LakersThe matchupKings
−274Our fair odds+274
120.9Expected points111.9
+0.49Power rating−1.24
123.2Points / game110.2
113.6Allowed / game126.8
52.8FG%46.0
39.03P%30.4
38.0Rebounds / game41.0
4−1Season record0−5
5−5Last 102−8
Adou Thiero F · Ziaire Williams FOutBen Simmons G · Dylan Cardwell C
Keegan Murray F · Maxime Raynaud C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAL chance · SAC chance
Our model fair73.3%26.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket US93.5%50.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US5:14 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALLos Angeles Lakers−27473%—−142793.5%——
SACSacramento Kings+27427%—−10350.7%——
SpreadLAL by 9.0
LALLos Angeles Lakers−9our margin————
SACSacramento Kings+9our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.8
Over232.8our total————
Under232.8our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 9.0 expected
Los Angeles Lakers by 49 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%
← LAL wins bySAC wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more66%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more49%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.8 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Probable Starting Lineups

as listed before tip
Los Angeles Lakers
GMatisse Thybullelast game
GAustin Reaveslast game
GQuentin Grimeslast game
FJake LaRavialast game
CWalker Kesslerlast game
Sacramento Kings
GZach LaVinelast game
GDarius Acuff Jr.last game
FDomantas Sabonislast game
FDe'Andre Hunterlast game
FPrecious Achiuwalast game

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAL·SAC
Oct 30 at GS
last game
Oct 29 at NO
4 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero F · left knee inflammationOut
LALZiaire Williams F · left footOut
Sacramento Kings
SACBen Simmons G · achilles ruptured, back about Oct 1, 2027Out
SACDylan Cardwell C · left calf strain, back about Nov 6Out
SACKeegan Murray F · ankle, back about Nov 6Out
SACMaxime Raynaud C · right knee dislocated, back about Nov 10Out

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
LAL·SAC
+0.49
rating (0 = average)
−1.24
123.2
points / game
110.2
113.6
points allowed / game
126.8
4−1
season record
0−5
2−1
home record
0−2
2−0
away record
0−3
W1
streak
L5
5−5
last 10
2−8
52.8
FG%
46.0
39.0
3P%
30.4
38.0
rebounds / game
41.0
24.0
assists / game
24.4
17.0
turnovers / game
17.0
50.0
points in paint / game
53.2

Rating Trend

LAL · SAC · 10 days
Los Angeles LakersSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 3−7
Mar 1at LALLAL 128 − 104
Jan 12at SACSAC 124 − 112
Dec 28, 2025at LALLAL 125 − 101
Oct 26, 2025at SACLAL 127 − 120
Dec 28, 2024at LALLAL 132 − 122
Dec 21, 2024at SACLAL 103 − 99
Dec 19, 2024at SACLAL 113 − 100
Oct 26, 2024at LALLAL 131 − 127
Mar 13, 2024at SACSAC 120 − 107
Mar 6, 2024at LALSAC 130 − 120

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 28at LAC103 − 87W
Oct 27vs POR129 − 136L
Oct 25at UTAH132 − 123W
Oct 23vs LAC125 − 117W
Oct 21vs GS127 − 105W
May 11vs OKC110 − 115L
May 9vs OKC108 − 131L
May 7at OKC107 − 125L
May 5at OKC90 − 108L
May 1at HOU98 − 78W

SAC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Oct 29at NO120 − 132L
Oct 27at SA103 − 130L
Oct 25vs MEM112 − 123L
Oct 23vs POR120 − 128L
Oct 21at LAC96 − 121L
Apr 12at POR110 − 122L
Apr 10vs GS124 − 118W
Apr 7at GS105 − 110L
Apr 5vs LAC109 − 138L
Apr 3vs NO117 − 113W