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Grizzlies at Kings

NBA · Sunday, Oct 25 · 8:00 PM CT · Golden 1 Center · Final MEM 123 – SAC 112
← NBA / Oct 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM25422927123
SAC28313122112
Team box
MEM·SAC
42-95
field goals
44-94
15-40
3-pointers
10-33
24-27
free throws
14-22
54
rebounds
44
24
assists
20
13
turnovers
14
48
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Zach LaVineSAC403725
Ty JeromeMEM323146
Darius Acuff Jr.SAC362237
Cameron BoozerMEM3116114
Jaylen WellsMEM331653
Domantas SabonisSAC3515153

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SAC +14
MEM +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SAC 6 · MEM 14lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 59%, SAC 41% · Updated Oct 25

Expected margin
MEM by 3.2
Expected score
MEM 119.6 – 116.4 SAC
Expected total
236.1
GrizzliesThe matchupKings
−144Our fair odds+144
119.6Expected points116.4
−0.65Power rating−1.08
117.0Points / game108.0
105.5Allowed / game124.5
47.0FG%44.0
38.03P%27.5
51.0Rebounds / game42.0
2−0Season record0−2
2−8Last 103−7
Javon Small · Karim López
Zach EdeyOutBen Simmons · Dylan Cardwell
Keegan Murray · Maxime Raynaud
Sean Pedulla

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · SAC chance
Our model fair59.0%41.0%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket US63.6%40.7%
ProphetX62.6%39.7%
Novig62.5%38.5%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 7:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 7:59 PM CTNovigpre-game · 7:58 PM CT
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−14459%−18364.6%−17563.6%−16762.6%−16762.5%
SACSacramento Kings+14441%+15239.6%+14640.7%+15239.7%+16038.5%
SpreadMEM by 3.2
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−3.2our margin−3.5 −11653.7%−3.5 −11653.7%−3.5 −11052.4%−3.5 −10852.0%
SACSacramento Kings+3.2our margin+3.5 −10350.7%+3.5 −10350.7%+3.5 −10050.0%+3.5 +10449.0%
Totalwe expect 236.1
Over236.1our totalo234.5 −12154.7%o234.5 −11653.7%o234.5 −11252.9%o234.5 −10852.0%
Under236.1our totalu234.5 +10149.7%u234.5 −10350.7%u234.5 −10050.0%u234.5 +10648.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 3.2 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 2%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: 2%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%
← MEM wins bySAC wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more49%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more34%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.1 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.530%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GTy Jeromestarted
FCedric Cowardstarted
FCameron Boozerstarted
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CIsaiah Stewartstarted
Sacramento Kings
GZach LaVinestarted
GDarius Acuff Jr.started
FDomantas Sabonisstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
FPrecious Achiuwastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·SAC
Oct 23 at GS
last game
Oct 23 vs POR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 25, 8:15 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMJavon Small · g league - two-wayOut
MEMKarim López · right knee contusion / bone bruiseOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle injury managementOut
Sacramento Kings
SACBen Simmons · right achilles tendon repair / surgeryOut
SACDylan Cardwell · left calf strainOut
SACKeegan Murray · left ankle capsulitisOut
SACMaxime Raynaud · right patella subluxationOut
SACSean Pedulla · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
MEM·SAC
−0.65
rating (0 = average)
−1.08
117.0
points / game
108.0
105.5
points allowed / game
124.5
2−0
season record
0−2
1−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−1
W2
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
3−7
47.0
FG%
44.0
38.0
3P%
27.5
51.0
rebounds / game
42.0
25.0
assists / game
21.5
21.0
turnovers / game
15.5
49.0
points in paint / game
54.0

Rating Trend

MEM · SAC · 5 days
Memphis GrizzliesSacramento Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SAC 6−4
Feb 23at MEMSAC 123 − 114
Feb 4at SACMEM 129 − 125
Nov 30, 2025at SACMEM 115 − 107
Nov 20, 2025at MEMMEM 137 − 96
Mar 17, 2025at SACSAC 132 − 122
Jan 3, 2025at SACSAC 138 − 133
Dec 5, 2024at MEMMEM 115 − 110
Mar 18, 2024at SACSAC 121 − 111
Jan 29, 2024at MEMSAC 103 − 94
Dec 31, 2023at MEMSAC 123 − 92

MEM · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Oct 23at GS111 − 108W
Oct 21vs UTAH123 − 103W
Apr 12at HOU101 − 132L
Apr 10at UTAH101 − 147L
Apr 8at DEN119 − 136L
Apr 6vs CLE126 − 142L
Apr 5at MIL115 − 131L
Apr 3vs TOR96 − 128L
Apr 1vs NY119 − 130L
Mar 30vs PHX105 − 131L

SAC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 23vs POR120 − 128L
Oct 21at LAC96 − 121L
Apr 12at POR110 − 122L
Apr 10vs GS124 − 118W
Apr 7at GS105 − 110L
Apr 5vs LAC109 − 138L
Apr 3vs NO117 − 113W
Apr 1at TOR123 − 115W
Mar 29at BKN99 − 116L
Mar 28at ATL113 − 123L