bayesRatings

Panthers at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final CAR 13 – NYJ 6
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CAR373013
NYJ03036
Team box
CAR·NYJ
302
total yards
220
177
passing yards
139
125
rushing yards
81
17
first downs
12
5-17
third downs
7-15
0
turnovers
2
35:05
time of possession
24:55
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR15/2513810
Tyrod TaylorNYJ10/2212602
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rico DowdleCAR17790
Breece HallNYJ11380
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Xavier LegetteCAR9921
Tyler JohnsonNYJ3600

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +10
CAR +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 0 · CAR 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 48%, NYJ 52% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
NYJ by 3.2
Expected score
NYJ 25.2 – 22.0 CAR
Expected total
47.2
PanthersThe matchupJets
+109Our fair odds−109
22.0Expected points25.2
−0.49Power rating−0.72
22.0Points / game20.5
24.3Allowed / game28.3
331Total yards / game280
5.1Yards / play4.6
188Passing yards / game144
3−3Season record0−6
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair47.9%52.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers+10948%————
NYJNew York Jets−10952%————
SpreadNYJ by 3.2
CARCarolina Panthers+3.2our margin————
NYJNew York Jets−3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.2
Over47.2our total————
Under47.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Jets by 3.2 expected
Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 8%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 4%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 8 points: 3%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 12 points: 2%New York Jets by 13 points: 2%New York Jets by 14 points: 2%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 3%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: 1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 25 points: 1%New York Jets by 26 points: 1%New York Jets by 27 points: 1%New York Jets by 28 points: 1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: 1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: 1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%
← CAR wins byNYJ wins by →
New York Jets wins by 3 or more52%
New York Jets wins by 7 or more36%
New York Jets wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.2 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.566%
Total over 47.546%
Total over 54.529%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 64% completions, 182 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
NYJTyrod Taylor · last 3 games: 72% completions, 112 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·NYJ
Oct 12, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Oct 12, 2025 vs DEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
CAR·NYJ
−0.49
rating (0 = average)
−0.72
22.0
points / game
20.5
24.3
points allowed / game
28.3
3−3
season record
0−6
3−0
home record
0−4
0−3
away record
0−2
W2
streak
L6
5−5
last 10
2−8
331
total yards / game
280
5.1
yards / play
4.6
188
passing yards / game
144
143
rushing yards / game
136
21.7
first downs / game
18.5
1.5
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

CAR · NYJ · 17 days
Carolina PanthersNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NYJ 0−1
Sep 12, 2021at CARCAR 19 − 14

CAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 12, 2025vs DAL30 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs MIA27 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at NE13 − 42L
Sep 21, 2025vs ATL30 − 0W
Sep 14, 2025at ARI22 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025at JAX10 − 26L
Jan 5, 2025at ATL44 − 38W
Dec 29, 2024at TB14 − 48L
Dec 22, 2024vs ARI36 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024vs DAL14 − 30L

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W
Dec 29, 2024at BUF14 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024vs LAR9 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024at JAX32 − 25W