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Colts at Chargers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final IND 38 – LAC 24
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND61715038
LAC3014724
Team box
IND·LAC
401
total yards
445
281
passing yards
391
120
rushing yards
54
24
first downs
25
5-11
third downs
8-16
0
turnovers
2
25:33
time of possession
34:27
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Daniel JonesIND23/3428820
Justin HerbertLAC37/5542032
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND16943
Justin HerbertLAC6310
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Alec PierceIND5980
Oronde GadsdenLAC71641

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +21
IND +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 0 · IND 21lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 45%, LAC 55% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 0.1
Expected score
IND 22.4 – 22.3 LAC
Expected total
44.7
ColtsThe matchupChargers
+121Our fair odds−121
22.4Expected points22.3
+0.29Power rating+0.17
32.3Points / game21.2
19.3Allowed / game20.8
377Total yards / game361
6.3Yards / play5.7
245Passing yards / game240
5−1Season record4−2
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · LAC chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+12145%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−12155%————
SpreadIND by 0.1
INDIndianapolis Colts−0.1our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.7
Over44.7our total————
Under44.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 0.1 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 5%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 9%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%
← IND wins byLAC wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more47%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more29%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.7 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 72% completions, 229 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 69% completions, 211 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·LAC
Oct 12, 2025 vs ARI
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at MIA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
IND·LAC
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
32.3
points / game
21.2
19.3
points allowed / game
20.8
5−1
season record
4−2
4−0
home record
2−1
1−1
away record
2−1
W2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
7−3
377
total yards / game
361
6.3
yards / play
5.7
245
passing yards / game
240
132
rushing yards / game
121
23.5
first downs / game
20.2
0.7
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

IND · LAC · 17 days
Indianapolis ColtsLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · LAC 1−0
Dec 26, 2022at INDLAC 20 − 3

IND · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W
Dec 29, 2024at NYG33 − 45L
Dec 22, 2024vs TEN38 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024at DEN13 − 31L

LAC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 12, 2025at MIA29 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs WSH10 − 27L
Sep 28, 2025at NYG18 − 21L
Sep 21, 2025vs DEN23 − 20W
Sep 15, 2025at LV20 − 9W
Sep 5, 2025vs KC27 − 21W
Jan 11, 2025at HOU12 − 32L
Jan 5, 2025at LV34 − 20W
Dec 28, 2024at NE40 − 7W
Dec 19, 2024vs DEN34 − 27W