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Raiders at Chiefs

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 12:00 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final LV 0 – KC 31
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV00000
KC71410031
Team box
LV·KC
95
total yards
434
70
passing yards
282
25
rushing yards
152
3
first downs
30
0-7
third downs
9-15
1
turnovers
0
17:52
time of possession
42:08
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithLV10/166700
Patrick MahomesKC26/3528630
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV6210
Isiah PachecoKC15571
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tre TuckerLV5330
Travis KelceKC3540

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +31
LV +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 31 · LV 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 22%, KC 78% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 13.6
Expected score
KC 27.4 – 13.8 LV
Expected total
41.2
RaidersThe matchupChiefs
+361Our fair odds−361
13.8Expected points27.4
−0.58Power rating+0.48
17.2Points / game25.8
24.8Allowed / game20.7
307Total yards / game360
5.1Yards / play5.8
202Passing yards / game241
2−4Season record3−3
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · KC chance
Our model fair21.7%78.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+36122%————
KCKansas City Chiefs−36178%————
SpreadKC by 13.6
LVLas Vegas Raiders+13.6our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs−13.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.2
Over41.2our total————
Under41.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 13.6 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 49 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 48 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 47 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 46 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 4%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 6%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 41 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 42 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 43 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 44 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 45 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 46 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 47 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 48 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 49 points: <1%
← LV wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more79%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more65%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more56%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.2 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.568%
Total over 41.547%
Total over 48.528%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 70% completions, 173 yds/game, 3 TD, 6 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 70% completions, 282 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·KC
Oct 12, 2025 vs TEN
last game
Oct 12, 2025 vs DET
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
LV·KC
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.48
17.2
points / game
25.8
24.8
points allowed / game
20.7
2−4
season record
3−3
1−2
home record
2−1
1−2
away record
1−2
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
307
total yards / game
360
5.1
yards / play
5.8
202
passing yards / game
241
105
rushing yards / game
119
18.0
first downs / game
22.2
1.8
turnovers / game
0.3

Rating Trend

LV · KC · 17 days
Las Vegas RaidersKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · KC 7−1
Nov 29, 2024at KCKC 19 − 17
Oct 27, 2024at LVKC 27 − 20
Dec 25, 2023at KCLV 20 − 14
Nov 26, 2023at LVKC 31 − 17
Jan 7, 2023at LVKC 31 − 13
Oct 10, 2022at KCKC 30 − 29
Dec 12, 2021at KCKC 48 − 9
Nov 14, 2021at LVKC 41 − 14

LV · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 12, 2025vs TEN20 − 10W
Oct 5, 2025at IND6 − 40L
Sep 28, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Sep 21, 2025at WSH24 − 41L
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L
Dec 29, 2024at NO25 − 10W
Dec 22, 2024vs JAX19 − 14W
Dec 16, 2024vs ATL9 − 15L

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 12, 2025vs DET30 − 17W
Oct 6, 2025at JAX28 − 31L
Sep 28, 2025vs BAL37 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at NYG22 − 9W
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L
Jan 26, 2025vs BUF32 − 29W
Jan 18, 2025vs HOU23 − 14W
Jan 5, 2025at DEN0 − 38L