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Rams at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 8:30 AM CT · Wembley Stadium · neutral site · Final LAR 35 – JAX 7
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR14701435
JAX00077
Team box
LAR·JAX
271
total yards
358
182
passing yards
264
89
rushing yards
94
26
first downs
21
2-10
third downs
3-15
0
turnovers
0
31:46
time of possession
28:14
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR21/3318250
Trevor LawrenceJAX23/4829610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR12540
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX8440
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Colby ParkinsonLAR3470
Travis HunterJAX81011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +28
LAR +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 0 · LAR 28lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 59%, JAX 41% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 4.0
Expected score
LAR 22.3 – 18.3 JAX
Expected total
40.6
RamsThe matchupJaguars
−146Our fair odds+146
22.3Expected points18.3
+0.31Power rating−0.09
23.3Points / game23.2
18.3Allowed / game20.0
375Total yards / game331
6.1Yards / play5.2
269Passing yards / game207
4−2Season record4−2
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · JAX chance
Our model fair59.4%40.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−14659%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+14641%————
SpreadLAR by 4.0
LARLos Angeles Rams−4our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+4our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.6
Over40.6our total————
Under40.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 4.0 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%
← LAR wins byJAX wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more58%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more39%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.6 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.529%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 67% completions, 315 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 67% completions, 218 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·JAX
Oct 12, 2025 at BAL
last game
Oct 12, 2025 vs SEA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
LAR·JAX
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
23.3
points / game
23.2
18.3
points allowed / game
20.0
4−2
season record
4−2
2−1
home record
3−1
2−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
375
total yards / game
331
6.1
yards / play
5.2
269
passing yards / game
207
106
rushing yards / game
124
21.3
first downs / game
18.8
1.2
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

LAR · JAX · 17 days
Los Angeles RamsJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · JAX 0−1
Dec 5, 2021at LARLAR 37 − 7

LAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 12, 2025at BAL17 − 3W
Oct 2, 2025vs SF23 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at PHI26 − 33L
Sep 14, 2025at TEN33 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025vs HOU14 − 9W
Jan 19, 2025at PHI22 − 28L
Jan 13, 2025vs MIN27 − 9W
Jan 5, 2025vs SEA25 − 30L
Dec 28, 2024vs ARI13 − 9W

JAX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L
Dec 29, 2024vs TEN20 − 13W
Dec 22, 2024at LV14 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024vs NYJ25 − 32L