bayesRatings

Dolphins at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 12:00 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · Final MIA 6 – CLE 31
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA06006
CLE3147731
Team box
MIA·CLE
219
total yards
206
120
passing yards
102
99
rushing yards
104
12
first downs
15
1-13
third downs
4-11
4
turnovers
0
28:15
time of possession
31:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tua TagovailoaMIA12/2310003
Dillon GabrielCLE13/1811600
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
De'Von AchaneMIA13820
Quinshon JudkinsCLE25843
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Dee EskridgeMIA2450
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE4360

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +25
MIA +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 25 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 53%, CLE 47% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 1.8
Expected score
MIA 20.8 – 19.1 CLE
Expected total
39.9
DolphinsThe matchupBrowns
−112Our fair odds+112
20.8Expected points19.1
−0.37Power rating−0.82
22.3Points / game13.7
29.0Allowed / game24.3
289Total yards / game282
5.4Yards / play4.2
198Passing yards / game191
1−5Season record1−5
3−7Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · CLE chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins−11253%————
CLECleveland Browns+11247%————
SpreadMIA by 1.8
MIAMiami Dolphins−1.8our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.9
Over39.9our total————
Under39.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 1.8 expected
Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 5%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 9%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 7%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 4%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 4%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%
← MIA wins byCLE wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more51%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more33%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.9 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.550%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 70% completions, 213 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted
CLEDillon Gabriel · last 3 games: 56% completions, 137 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·CLE
Oct 12, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at PIT
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
MIA·CLE
−0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.82
22.3
points / game
13.7
29.0
points allowed / game
24.3
1−5
season record
1−5
1−2
home record
1−2
0−3
away record
0−3
L2
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
1−9
289
total yards / game
282
5.4
yards / play
4.2
198
passing yards / game
191
91
rushing yards / game
91
16.7
first downs / game
17.8
1.3
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

MIA · CLE · 17 days
Miami DolphinsCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CLE 0−2
Dec 29, 2024at CLEMIA 20 − 3
Nov 13, 2022at MIAMIA 39 − 17

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L
Dec 29, 2024at CLE20 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs SF29 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at HOU12 − 20L

CLE · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
Oct 12, 2025at PIT9 − 23L
Oct 5, 2025vs MIN17 − 21L
Sep 28, 2025at DET10 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs GB13 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L
Dec 29, 2024vs MIA3 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at CIN6 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024vs KC7 − 21L