bayesRatings

Patriots at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final NE 31 – TEN 13
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE31414031
TEN1030013
Team box
NE·TEN
387
total yards
255
212
passing yards
216
175
rushing yards
39
22
first downs
16
5-12
third downs
3-10
0
turnovers
2
37:12
time of possession
22:48
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE21/2322220
Cam WardTEN25/3425511
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rhamondre StevensonNE18881
Tyjae SpearsTEN5220
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Stefon DiggsNE7690
Chimere DikeTEN4701

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +18
NE +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 7 · NE 18lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 60%, TEN 40% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
NE by 4.9
Expected score
NE 22.1 – 17.2 TEN
Expected total
39.3
PatriotsThe matchupTitans
−151Our fair odds+151
22.1Expected points17.2
−0.17Power rating−0.94
25.0Points / game13.8
20.0Allowed / game26.8
336Total yards / game232
5.7Yards / play3.9
244Passing yards / game150
4−2Season record1−5
5−5Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · TEN chance
Our model fair60.1%39.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots−15160%————
TENTennessee Titans+15140%————
SpreadNE by 4.9
NENew England Patriots−4.9our margin————
TENTennessee Titans+4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.3
Over39.3our total————
Under39.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 4.9 expected
New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 2%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 2%New England Patriots by 23 points: 2%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 2%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 3%New England Patriots by 16 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 4%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 5%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 5 points: 3%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 9%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 6%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%
← NE wins byTEN wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more60%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more41%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.3 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.548%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 74% completions, 246 yds/game, 5 TD, 0 INTstarted
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 55% completions, 198 yds/game, 1 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·TEN
Oct 12, 2025 at NO
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at LV
6 days
days of rest
6 days
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
NE·TEN
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.94
25.0
points / game
13.8
20.0
points allowed / game
26.8
4−2
season record
1−5
1−2
home record
0−2
3−0
away record
1−3
W3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
1−9
336
total yards / game
232
5.7
yards / play
3.9
244
passing yards / game
150
92
rushing yards / game
82
19.7
first downs / game
15.2
1.2
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

NE · TEN · 17 days
New England PatriotsTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · TEN 1−1
Nov 3, 2024at TENTEN 20 − 17
Nov 28, 2021at NENE 36 − 13

NE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Oct 12, 2025at NO25 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at BUF23 − 20W
Sep 28, 2025vs CAR42 − 13W
Sep 21, 2025vs PIT14 − 21L
Sep 14, 2025at MIA33 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025vs LV13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs BUF23 − 16W
Dec 28, 2024vs LAC7 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at BUF21 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024at ARI17 − 30L

TEN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Oct 12, 2025at LV10 − 20L
Oct 5, 2025at ARI22 − 21W
Sep 28, 2025at HOU0 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs IND20 − 41L
Sep 14, 2025vs LAR19 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at DEN12 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs HOU14 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at JAX13 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at IND30 − 38L
Dec 15, 2024vs CIN27 − 37L