bayesRatings

Giants at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 3:05 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final NYG 32 – DEN 33
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYG7661332
DEN0003333
Team box
NYG·DEN
387
total yards
407
268
passing yards
265
119
rushing yards
142
26
first downs
25
6-15
third downs
4-13
1
turnovers
0
30:11
time of possession
29:49
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jaxson DartNYG15/3328331
Bo NixDEN27/5027920
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Cam SkatteboNYG16600
J.K. DobbinsDEN14810
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Wan'Dale RobinsonNYG6950
Courtland SuttonDEN6870

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +19
NYG +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 4 · NYG 19lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYG 25%, DEN 75% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 12.5
Expected score
DEN 24.8 – 12.3 NYG
Expected total
37.1
GiantsThe matchupBroncos
+297Our fair odds−297
12.3Expected points24.8
−0.51Power rating+0.33
20.2Points / game21.7
24.0Allowed / game15.8
328Total yards / game337
5.0Yards / play5.3
202Passing yards / game207
2−4Season record4−2
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYG chance · DEN chance
Our model fair25.2%74.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYGNew York Giants+29725%————
DENDenver Broncos−29775%————
SpreadDEN by 12.5
NYGNew York Giants+12.5our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−12.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 37.1
Over37.1our total————
Under37.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 12.5 expected
New York Giants by 49 points: <1%New York Giants by 48 points: <1%New York Giants by 47 points: <1%New York Giants by 46 points: <1%New York Giants by 45 points: <1%New York Giants by 44 points: <1%New York Giants by 43 points: <1%New York Giants by 42 points: <1%New York Giants by 41 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: <1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 18 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: <1%New York Giants by 16 points: <1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: <1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 9 points: <1%New York Giants by 8 points: 1%New York Giants by 7 points: 2%New York Giants by 6 points: 1%New York Giants by 5 points: 1%New York Giants by 4 points: 2%New York Giants by 3 points: 5%New York Giants by 2 points: 1%New York Giants by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 1%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 6%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 29 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 32 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 35 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 42 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 43 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 44 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 45 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 46 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 47 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 48 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 49 points: <1%
← NYG wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more76%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more62%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more53%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

37.1 expected
4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: <1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 30.568%
Total over 37.547%
Total over 44.527%
Total from 31 to 4441%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYGJaxson Dart · last 3 games: 66% completions, 169 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 65% completions, 247 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYG·DEN
Oct 9, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at NYJ
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
NYG·DEN
−0.51
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
20.2
points / game
21.7
24.0
points allowed / game
15.8
2−4
season record
4−2
2−1
home record
2−0
0−3
away record
2−2
W1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
5−5
328
total yards / game
337
5.0
yards / play
5.3
202
passing yards / game
207
126
rushing yards / game
130
21.0
first downs / game
19.3
1.3
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

NYG · DEN · 17 days
New York GiantsDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DEN 1−0
Sep 12, 2021at NYGDEN 27 − 13

NYG · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 9, 2025vs PHI34 − 17W
Oct 5, 2025at NO14 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs LAC21 − 18W
Sep 21, 2025vs KC9 − 22L
Sep 14, 2025at DAL37 − 40L
Sep 7, 2025at WSH6 − 21L
Jan 5, 2025at PHI13 − 20L
Dec 29, 2024vs IND45 − 33W
Dec 22, 2024at ATL7 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs BAL14 − 35L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W
Sep 29, 2025vs CIN28 − 3W
Sep 21, 2025at LAC20 − 23L
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L
Jan 5, 2025vs KC38 − 0W
Dec 28, 2024at CIN24 − 30L
Dec 19, 2024at LAC27 − 34L