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Commanders at Cowboys

NFL · Sunday, Oct 19 · 3:25 PM CT · AT&T Stadium · Final WSH 22 – DAL 44
← NFL / Oct 19, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH877022
DAL171014344
Team box
WSH·DAL
341
total yards
409
205
passing yards
257
136
rushing yards
152
18
first downs
21
7-16
third downs
6-12
2
turnovers
0
28:39
time of possession
31:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jayden DanielsWSH12/2215610
Dak PrescottDAL21/3026430
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jayden DanielsWSH8351
Javonte WilliamsDAL191161
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaylin LaneWSH3600
CeeDee LambDAL51101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +26
WSH +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 26 · WSH 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 52%, DAL 48% · Updated Oct 19, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 1.7
Expected score
WSH 31.1 – 29.3 DAL
Expected total
60.4
CommandersThe matchupCowboys
−107Our fair odds+107
31.1Expected points29.3
+0.20Power rating−0.20
26.3Points / game29.7
21.0Allowed / game30.7
346Total yards / game388
6.0Yards / play6.1
195Passing yards / game270
3−3Season record2−3−1
6−4Last 104−5−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · DAL chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders−10752%————
DALDallas Cowboys+10748%————
SpreadWSH by 1.7
WSHWashington Commanders−1.7our margin————
DALDallas Cowboys+1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 60.4
Over60.4our total————
Under60.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Commanders by 1.7 expected
Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 5%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 9%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 7%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 4%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%
← WSH wins byDAL wins by →
Washington Commanders wins by 3 or more51%
Washington Commanders wins by 7 or more32%
Washington Commanders wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

60.4 expected
23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: <1%31 points: <1%32 points: <1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 1%41 points: 1%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 3%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 3%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 2%78 points: 2%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: 1%85 points: <1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: 1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: 1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%99 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 53.566%
Total over 60.550%
Total over 67.534%
Total from 54 to 6732%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 62% completions, 214 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 72% completions, 272 yds/game, 10 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·DAL
Oct 13, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at CAR
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
WSH·DAL
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
26.3
points / game
29.7
21.0
points allowed / game
30.7
3−3
season record
2−3−1
2−1
home record
1−0−1
1−2
away record
1−3
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−5−1
346
total yards / game
388
6.0
yards / play
6.1
195
passing yards / game
270
151
rushing yards / game
117
19.7
first downs / game
23.3
1.0
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

WSH · DAL · 17 days
Washington CommandersDallas Cowboys
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DAL 6−2
Jan 5, 2025at DALWSH 23 − 19
Nov 24, 2024at WSHDAL 34 − 26
Jan 7, 2024at WSHDAL 38 − 10
Nov 23, 2023at DALDAL 45 − 10
Jan 8, 2023at WSHWSH 26 − 6
Oct 2, 2022at DALDAL 25 − 10
Dec 26, 2021at DALDAL 56 − 14
Dec 12, 2021at WSHDAL 27 − 20

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 13, 2025vs CHI24 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025at LAC27 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025at ATL27 − 34L
Sep 21, 2025vs LV41 − 24W
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L
Jan 18, 2025at DET45 − 31W
Jan 12, 2025at TB23 − 20W
Jan 5, 2025at DAL23 − 19W

DAL · Last 10

4−5−1 · streak L1
Oct 12, 2025at CAR27 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at NYJ37 − 22W
Sep 28, 2025vs GB40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CHI14 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NYG40 − 37W
Sep 4, 2025at PHI20 − 24L
Jan 5, 2025vs WSH19 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at PHI7 − 41L
Dec 22, 2024vs TB26 − 24W
Dec 15, 2024at CAR30 − 14W