bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Lions

NFL · Monday, Oct 20 · 6:00 PM CT · Ford Field · Final TB 9 – DET 24
← NFL / Oct 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB03609
DET777324
Team box
TB·DET
251
total yards
379
210
passing yards
215
41
rushing yards
164
15
first downs
17
4-16
third downs
3-13
2
turnovers
2
28:21
time of possession
31:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB28/5022811
Jared GoffDET20/2924111
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rachaad WhiteTB10380
Jahmyr GibbsDET171362
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Cade OttonTB7650
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET6861

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +15
TB +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 15 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 32%, DET 68% · Updated Oct 20, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 6.5
Expected score
DET 33.6 – 27.1 TB
Expected total
60.7
BuccaneersThe matchupLions
+209Our fair odds−209
27.1Expected points33.6
+0.45Power rating+0.92
27.5Points / game31.8
25.2Allowed / game23.7
354Total yards / game354
5.8Yards / play5.9
244Passing yards / game225
5−1Season record4−2
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · DET chance
Our model fair32.4%67.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+20932%————
DETDetroit Lions−20968%————
SpreadDET by 6.5
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers+6.5our margin————
DETDetroit Lions−6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 60.7
Over60.7our total————
Under60.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 6.5 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 46 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 45 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 7%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 44 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 45 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 46 points: <1%
← TB wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more61%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more46%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

60.7 expected
23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: <1%31 points: <1%32 points: <1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 1%41 points: 1%42 points: 1%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 3%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 3%66 points: 3%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 2%78 points: 2%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: 1%84 points: 1%85 points: <1%86 points: 1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: 1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: 1%97 points: <1%98 points: <1%99 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 53.566%
Total over 60.551%
Total over 67.535%
Total from 54 to 6732%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 71% completions, 308 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 73% completions, 210 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·DET
Oct 12, 2025 vs SF
last game
Oct 12, 2025 at KC
7 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
TB·DET
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.92
27.5
points / game
31.8
25.2
points allowed / game
23.7
5−1
season record
4−2
2−1
home record
2−0
3−0
away record
2−2
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
354
total yards / game
354
5.8
yards / play
5.9
244
passing yards / game
225
109
rushing yards / game
129
20.3
first downs / game
20.3
0.3
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

TB · DET · 18 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · DET 2−1
Sep 15, 2024at DETTB 20 − 16
Jan 21, 2024at DETDET 31 − 23post
Oct 15, 2023at TBDET 20 − 6

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs NO27 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs CAR48 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024at DAL24 − 26L

DET · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 12, 2025at KC17 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at CIN37 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025vs CLE34 − 10W
Sep 22, 2025at BAL38 − 30W
Sep 14, 2025vs CHI52 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at GB13 − 27L
Jan 18, 2025vs WSH31 − 45L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIN31 − 9W
Dec 30, 2024at SF40 − 34W
Dec 22, 2024at CHI34 − 17W