bayesRatings

Bears at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final CHI 16 – BAL 30
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI6001016
BAL01061430
Team box
CHI·BAL
372
total yards
355
276
passing yards
178
96
rushing yards
177
19
first downs
24
6-13
third downs
4-10
1
turnovers
0
29:30
time of possession
30:30
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI25/3828501
Tyler HuntleyBAL17/2218610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI11451
Derrick HenryBAL21712
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Rome OdunzeCHI71140
Zay FlowersBAL7630

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +14
CHI +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 14 · CHI 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 39%, BAL 61% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 5.4
Expected score
BAL 29.1 – 23.7 CHI
Expected total
52.8
BearsThe matchupRavens
+157Our fair odds−157
23.7Expected points29.1
−0.02Power rating+0.09
25.3Points / game24.0
25.8Allowed / game32.3
347Total yards / game309
5.6Yards / play5.8
217Passing yards / game183
4−2Season record1−5
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · BAL chance
Our model fair39.0%61.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+15739%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−15761%————
SpreadBAL by 5.4
CHIChicago Bears+5.4our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−5.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 52.8
Over52.8our total————
Under52.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 5.4 expected
Chicago Bears by 45 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 44 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 9 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 7%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 43 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 44 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 45 points: <1%
← CHI wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more58%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more43%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more34%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

52.8 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 45.566%
Total over 52.548%
Total over 59.532%
Total from 46 to 5934%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 59% completions, 212 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
BALTyler Huntley · last 3 games: 70% completions, 173 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·BAL
Oct 19, 2025 vs NO
last game
Oct 12, 2025 vs LAR
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
CHI·BAL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
25.3
points / game
24.0
25.8
points allowed / game
32.3
4−2
season record
1−5
2−1
home record
1−3
2−1
away record
0−2
W4
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
4−6
347
total yards / game
309
5.6
yards / play
5.8
217
passing yards / game
183
130
rushing yards / game
126
19.3
first downs / game
17.2
0.8
turnovers / game
1.7

Rating Trend

CHI · BAL · 20 days
Chicago BearsBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · BAL 1−0
Nov 21, 2021at CHIBAL 16 − 13

CHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W
Oct 13, 2025at WSH25 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at LV25 − 24W
Sep 21, 2025vs DAL31 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W
Dec 26, 2024vs SEA3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2024vs DET17 − 34L
Dec 16, 2024at MIN12 − 30L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Oct 12, 2025vs LAR3 − 17L
Oct 5, 2025vs HOU10 − 44L
Sep 28, 2025at KC20 − 37L
Sep 22, 2025vs DET30 − 38L
Sep 14, 2025vs CLE41 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L
Jan 19, 2025at BUF25 − 27L
Jan 11, 2025vs PIT28 − 14W
Jan 4, 2025vs CLE35 − 10W
Dec 25, 2024at HOU31 − 2W