bayesRatings

Packers at Steelers

NFL · Sunday, Oct 26 · 7:20 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final GB 35 – PIT 25
← NFL / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB7072135
PIT3133625
Team box
GB·PIT
454
total yards
295
360
passing yards
202
94
rushing yards
93
22
first downs
16
5-12
third downs
1-10
0
turnovers
1
31:48
time of possession
28:12
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB29/3736030
Aaron RodgersPIT24/3621920
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Emanuel WilsonGB11610
Jaylen WarrenPIT13620
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tucker KraftGB71432
Roman WilsonPIT4741

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +16
GB +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 9 · GB 16lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 54%, PIT 46% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 2.4
Expected score
GB 23.9 – 21.6 PIT
Expected total
45.5
PackersThe matchupSteelers
−117Our fair odds+117
23.9Expected points21.6
+0.64Power rating+0.11
26.3Points / game25.0
20.8Allowed / game23.3
343Total yards / game298
5.6Yards / play5.4
226Passing yards / game203
4−1−1Season record4−2
5−4−1Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · PIT chance
Our model fair54.0%46.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers−11754%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+11746%————
SpreadGB by 2.4
GBGreen Bay Packers−2.4our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers+2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.5
Over45.5our total————
Under45.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 2.4 expected
Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 9%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%
← GB wins byPIT wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more53%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more34%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.5 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 70% completions, 258 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 72% completions, 228 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·PIT
Oct 19, 2025 at ARI
last game
Oct 16, 2025 at CIN
6 days
days of rest
9 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
GB·PIT
+0.64
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
26.3
points / game
25.0
20.8
points allowed / game
23.3
4−1−1
season record
4−2
3−0
home record
2−1
1−1−1
away record
2−1
W2
streak
L1
5−4−1
last 10
4−6
343
total yards / game
298
5.6
yards / play
5.4
226
passing yards / game
203
118
rushing yards / game
94
20.8
first downs / game
17.7
0.5
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

GB · PIT · 20 days
Green Bay PackersPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · PIT 1−1
Nov 12, 2023at PITPIT 23 − 19
Oct 3, 2021at GBGB 27 − 17

GB · Last 10

5−4−1 · streak W2
Oct 19, 2025at ARI27 − 23W
Oct 12, 2025vs CIN27 − 18W
Sep 28, 2025at DAL40 − 40T
Sep 21, 2025at CLE10 − 13L
Sep 11, 2025vs WSH27 − 18W
Sep 7, 2025vs DET27 − 13W
Jan 12, 2025at PHI10 − 22L
Jan 5, 2025vs CHI22 − 24L
Dec 29, 2024at MIN25 − 27L
Dec 23, 2024vs NO34 − 0W

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W
Sep 14, 2025vs SEA17 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 32W
Jan 11, 2025at BAL14 − 28L
Jan 4, 2025vs CIN17 − 19L
Dec 25, 2024vs KC10 − 29L
Dec 21, 2024at BAL17 − 34L