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Maple Leafs at Canucks

NHL · Saturday, Oct 31 · 6:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena
← NHL / Oct 31

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
TOR by 0.9
Expected score
TOR 3.9 – 3.0 VAN
Expected total
6.9
Maple LeafsThe matchupCanucks
−171Our fair odds+171
3.9Expected goals3.0
−0.09Power rating−0.81
3.7Goals / game3.0
3.4Allowed / game4.5
28.1Shots / game21.0
52.4Faceoff %47.2
19.9Hits / game23.6
7−8Season record3−12
5−5Last 101−9
Chris Tanev D · John Tavares C
Kirill Marchenko RW · Marshall Rifai D
Miles Wood LWOutAkil Thomas C · Filip Chytil C
Mackenzie MacEachern LW · Thatcher Demko G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · VAN chance
Our model fair63.1%36.9%
Kalshi65.6%38.6%
Polymarket US65.6%38.6%
ProphetX64.5%38.0%
Novig63.5%37.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi1:20 PM CTPolymarket US1:20 PM CTProphetX1:20 PM CTNovig1:18 PM CT
Moneyline
TORToronto Maple Leafs−17163%−19165.6%−19165.6%−18264.5%−17463.5%
VANVancouver Canucks+17137%+15938.6%+15938.6%+16338.0%+17037.0%
SpreadTOR by 0.9
TORToronto Maple Leafs−0.9our margin−1.5 +13442.7%−1.5 +12943.7%−1.5 +13542.5%−1.5 +13542.5%
VANVancouver Canucks+0.9our margin+1.5 −16161.7%+1.5 −15460.7%+1.5 −14959.8%+1.5 −14158.5%
Totalwe expect 6.9
Over6.9our totalo6.5 −12655.7%o6.5 −12655.7%o6.5 −12255.0%o6.5 −12054.5%
Under6.9our totalu6.5 +10548.7%u6.5 +10548.7%u6.5 +11247.2%u6.5 +11746.0%

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Maple Leafs by 0.9 expected
Toronto Maple Leafs by 7 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: 1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 4%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 9%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 16%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 12%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 21%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 17%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 7%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 7%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%
← TOR wins byVAN wins by →
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more42%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 3 or more31%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.9 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 6.555%
Total over 7.536%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
TORAnthony Stolarz G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 2.79 GAAconfirmed
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .825 save %, 5.26 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·VAN
Oct 28 at SEA
last game
Oct 29 at SJ
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Toronto Maple Leafs
TORChris Tanev D · upper body, back about Oct 31IR
TORJohn Tavares C · lower body, back about Oct 31IR
TORKirill Marchenko RW · lower body, back about Nov 7IR
TORMarshall Rifai D · lower body, back about Oct 31IR
TORMiles Wood LW · undisclosed, back about Nov 7IR
TORNick Blankenburg D · undisclosed, back about Oct 31IR
Vancouver Canucks
VANAkil Thomas C · undisclosedIR
VANFilip Chytil C · upper body, back about Nov 7IR
VANMackenzie MacEachern LW · undisclosedIR
VANThatcher Demko G · hip surgery, back about Dec 21IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
TOR·VAN
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.81
3.7
goals / game
3.0
3.4
goals allowed / game
4.5
7−8
season record
3−12
4−4
home record
1−5
3−4
away record
2−7
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
1−9
28.1
shots / game
21.0
52.4
faceoff %
47.2
19.9
hits / game
23.6
14.8
blocked shots / game
14.4
4.1
takeaways / game
4.3
16.5
giveaways / game
16.9

Rating Trend

TOR · VAN · 32 days
Toronto Maple LeafsVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 6−4
Jan 31at VANTOR 3 − 2 SO
Jan 10at TORTOR 5 − 0
Feb 8, 2025at VANVAN 2 − 1
Jan 11, 2025at TORVAN 3 − 0
Jan 20, 2024at VANVAN 6 − 4
Nov 11, 2023at TORTOR 5 − 2
Mar 4, 2023at VANVAN 4 − 1
Nov 12, 2022at TORTOR 3 − 2
Mar 5, 2022at TORVAN 6 − 4
Feb 12, 2022at VANVAN 3 − 2

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 28at SEA4 − 5L
Oct 26at CGY2 − 5L
Oct 24at EDM7 − 2W
Oct 22vs NYR5 − 4W
Oct 20at CBJ6 − 2W
Oct 19vs SJ3 − 1W
Oct 17vs NYI1 − 4L
Oct 15vs BUF4 − 5L
Oct 13at UTAH4 − 5L
Oct 10at COL6 − 3W

VAN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L1
Oct 29at SJ2 − 3L
Oct 27at ANA6 − 5W
Oct 25vs MIN2 − 4L
Oct 22vs DET2 − 5L
Oct 20vs CAR3 − 6L
Oct 17at TB2 − 4L
Oct 15at FLA2 − 3L
Oct 13at NYI2 − 3L
Oct 11at NYR2 − 6L
Oct 10at NJ1 − 4L