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Red Wings at Lightning

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 3

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
TB by 1.4
Expected score
TB 3.8 – 2.5 DET
Expected total
6.3
Red WingsThe matchupLightning
+218Our fair odds−218
2.5Expected goals3.8
−0.08Power rating+0.30
2.8Goals / game3.7
2.9Allowed / game3.2
29.9Shots / game30.4
50.4Faceoff %48.0
24.4Hits / game21.8
6−7Season record8−4
5−5Last 107−3
Albert Johansson D · Marco Kasper C
Mason Appleton C · Simon Edvinsson DOutYanni Gourde C

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · TB chance
Our model fair31.4%68.6%
Kalshi33.5%73.4%
Polymarket US32.5%71.5%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:29 AM CTPolymarket US4:29 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+21831%+19833.5%+20832.5%——
TBTampa Bay Lightning−21869%−27673.4%−25071.5%——
SpreadTB by 1.4
DETDetroit Red Wings+1.4our margin—−1.5 +22930.4%——
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.4our margin—+1.5 −1063999.1%——
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total—o5.5 −34077.3%——
Under6.3our total—u5.5 −26372.4%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.4 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 7 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 5%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 5%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 19%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 5%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: 1%
← DET wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more51%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more38%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
DETDaniil Tarasov G · last 5 starts: .945 save %, 1.36 GAAexpected
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .866 save %, 3.41 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·TB
Oct 29 vs CHI
last game
Oct 29 vs WPG
4 days
days of rest
4 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Detroit Red Wings
DETAlbert Johansson D · undisclosed, back about Nov 5Out
DETMarco Kasper C · upper body, back about Nov 10IR
DETMason Appleton C · undisclosed, back about Nov 10IR
DETSimon Edvinsson D · contract disputeIR
Tampa Bay Lightning
TBZemgus Girgensons C · lower bodyDay-to-day
TBYanni Gourde C · hip surgery, back about Dec 2IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
DET·TB
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
2.8
goals / game
3.7
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.2
6−7
season record
8−4
4−4
home record
6−0
2−3
away record
2−4
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
7−3
29.9
shots / game
30.4
50.4
faceoff %
48.0
24.4
hits / game
21.8
14.8
blocked shots / game
13.6
4.5
takeaways / game
3.4
15.0
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

DET · TB · 31 days
Detroit Red WingsTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 5−5
Apr 13at TBTB 4 − 3 OT
Mar 12at TBTB 4 − 1
Nov 28, 2025at DETTB 6 − 3
Oct 17, 2025at DETDET 2 − 1 OT
Apr 11, 2025at TBDET 4 − 3 OT
Feb 8, 2025at DETTB 6 − 3
Jan 25, 2025at DETDET 2 − 0
Jan 18, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Apr 1, 2024at TBDET 4 − 2
Jan 21, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 29vs CHI4 − 1W
Oct 26at EDM4 − 3W
Oct 24at CGY1 − 4L
Oct 22at VAN5 − 2W
Oct 20at SEA3 − 4L
Oct 17vs SJ4 − 3W
Oct 15vs PHI2 − 1W
Oct 13vs NJ4 − 5L
Oct 10at MTL0 − 1L
Oct 9vs SEA3 − 6L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 29vs WPG6 − 4W
Oct 24at UTAH4 − 5L
Oct 23at COL3 − 6L
Oct 20at VGK6 − 2W
Oct 17vs VAN4 − 2W
Oct 15vs SEA4 − 3W
Oct 13at NYR1 − 4L
Oct 10at NYI5 − 3W
Oct 8vs MIN3 − 2W
Oct 5vs PHI4 − 1W