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Mammoth at Maple Leafs

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 3 · 6:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 3

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
UTAH 3.7 – 3.2 TOR
Expected total
6.9
MammothThe matchupMaple Leafs
−123Our fair odds+123
3.7Expected goals3.2
+0.09Power rating−0.09
3.6Goals / game3.7
3.3Allowed / game3.4
30.4Shots / game28.1
54.6Faceoff %52.4
27.0Hits / game19.9
9−5Season record7−8
6−4Last 105−5
John Marino D · Maveric Lamoureux D
Michael Carcone LWOutChris Tanev D · John Tavares C
Kirill Marchenko RW · Marshall Rifai D
Miles Wood LW

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · TOR chance
Our model fair55.2%44.8%
Kalshi59.7%47.7%
Polymarket US57.7%47.7%
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi4:34 AM CTPolymarket US4:34 AM CTProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth−12355%−14859.7%−13657.7%——
TORToronto Maple Leafs+12345%+10947.7%+11047.7%——
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth−0.5our margin—−2.5 +11047.7%——
TORToronto Maple Leafs+0.5our margin—+2.5 −1063999.1%——
Totalwe expect 6.9
Over6.9our total—o5.5 −35978.2%——
Under6.9our total—u5.5 −27673.4%——

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 7 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: 1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 3%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 8%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 14%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 11%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 18%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 21%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 8%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 9%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 4%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 7 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byTOR wins by →
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more37%
Utah Mammoth wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.9 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 6.556%
Total over 7.536%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .864 save %, 3.99 GAAexpected
TORSergei Bobrovsky G · last 5 starts: .871 save %, 3.23 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·TOR
Oct 29 at PIT
last game
Oct 28 at SEA
4 days
days of rest
5 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Utah Mammoth
UTAHJohn Marino D · upper bodyOut
UTAHMaveric Lamoureux D · shoulder, back about Feb 12, 2027IR
UTAHMichael Carcone LW · upper bodyIR
Toronto Maple Leafs
TORChris Tanev D · upper bodyIR
TORJohn Tavares C · lower bodyIR
TORKirill Marchenko RW · lower body, back about Nov 7IR
TORMarshall Rifai D · lower bodyIR
TORMiles Wood LW · undisclosed, back about Nov 7IR
TORNick Blankenburg D · undisclosedIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
UTAH·TOR
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.6
goals / game
3.7
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.4
9−5
season record
7−8
4−2
home record
4−4
5−3
away record
3−4
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
5−5
30.4
shots / game
28.1
54.6
faceoff %
52.4
27.0
hits / game
19.9
14.6
blocked shots / game
14.8
3.6
takeaways / game
4.1
16.1
giveaways / game
16.5

Rating Trend

UTAH · TOR · 31 days
Utah MammothToronto Maple Leafs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 5 meetings · TOR 3−2
Oct 13at UTAHUTAH 5 − 4
Jan 13at UTAHUTAH 6 − 1
Nov 5, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 3
Mar 10, 2025at UTAHTOR 4 − 3 SO
Nov 24, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 2

UTAH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 29at PIT4 − 3W
Oct 27vs MIN1 − 3L
Oct 24vs TB5 − 4W
Oct 22at SEA3 − 5L
Oct 19vs PIT5 − 4W
Oct 17vs EDM2 − 6L
Oct 15at EDM4 − 2W
Oct 13vs TOR5 − 4W
Oct 10at BUF4 − 1W
Oct 8at BOS1 − 6L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 28at SEA4 − 5L
Oct 26at CGY2 − 5L
Oct 24at EDM7 − 2W
Oct 22vs NYR5 − 4W
Oct 20at CBJ6 − 2W
Oct 19vs SJ3 − 1W
Oct 17vs NYI1 − 4L
Oct 15vs BUF4 − 5L
Oct 13at UTAH4 − 5L
Oct 10at COL6 − 3W