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Flyers at Rangers

NHL · Thursday, Nov 5 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 5

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 30

Expected margin
NYR by 0.7
Expected score
NYR 3.3 – 2.5 PHI
Expected total
5.8
FlyersThe matchupRangers
+142Our fair odds−142
2.5Expected goals3.3
−0.15Power rating−0.06
1.9Goals / game3.1
3.4Allowed / game3.0
23.3Shots / game24.5
50.6Faceoff %53.9
23.3Hits / game26.0
3−12Season record7−7
3−7Last 104−6
Owen Tippett RW · Rasmus Ristolainen D
Travis Konecny RWOutAdam Sykora LW · Igor Shesterkin G
Joe Veleno C · Joonas Korpisalo G

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · NYR chance
Our model fair41.3%58.7%
Kalshi43.7%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi5:14 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+14241%+12943.7%———
NYRNew York Rangers−14259%−19165.6%———
SpreadNYR by 0.7
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers+0.7our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Rangers by 0.7 expected
Philadelphia Flyers by 6 goals: <1%Philadelphia Flyers by 5 goals: 1%Philadelphia Flyers by 4 goals: 3%Philadelphia Flyers by 3 goals: 7%Philadelphia Flyers by 2 goals: 7%Philadelphia Flyers by 1 goal: 23%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 18%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 16%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 9%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%
← PHI wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more41%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more29%
Philadelphia Flyers wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
PHIDan Vladar G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.55 GAAexpected
NYRJames Reimer G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 2.33 GAAexpected

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·NYR
Oct 28 at WSH
last game
Oct 26 vs LA
7 days
days of rest
9 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Philadelphia Flyers
PHIOwen Tippett RW · upper bodyIR
PHIRasmus Ristolainen D · hand, back about Nov 11IR
PHITravis Konecny RW · lower bodyIR
New York Rangers
NYREeli Tolvanen RW · personalDay-to-day
NYRJames Reimer G · upper bodyDay-to-day
NYRAdam Sykora LW · lower body, back about Jan 25, 2027IR
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · right knee surgery, back about Sep 15, 2027IR
NYRJoe Veleno C · right lower body, back about Jan 3, 2027IR
NYRJoonas Korpisalo G · lower body, back about Nov 9IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
PHI·NYR
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
1.9
goals / game
3.1
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.0
3−12
season record
7−7
2−6
home record
6−1
1−6
away record
1−6
L3
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
4−6
23.3
shots / game
24.5
50.6
faceoff %
53.9
23.3
hits / game
26.0
16.0
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.2
takeaways / game
4.0
15.3
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

PHI · NYR · 31 days
Philadelphia FlyersNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 6−4
Mar 9at PHINYR 6 − 2
Feb 26at NYRPHI 3 − 2 OT
Jan 17at PHINYR 6 − 3
Dec 20, 2025at NYRNYR 5 − 4 SO
Apr 9, 2025at NYRPHI 8 − 5
Jan 23, 2025at NYRNYR 6 − 1
Nov 29, 2024at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Apr 11, 2024at NYRPHI 4 − 1
Mar 26, 2024at NYRNYR 6 − 5 OT
Feb 24, 2024at PHINYR 2 − 1

PHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 28at WSH2 − 5L
Oct 27vs CBJ3 − 4L
Oct 24vs ANA4 − 5L
Oct 21at BUF3 − 1W
Oct 19vs COL3 − 2W
Oct 17vs OTT3 − 1W
Oct 15at DET1 − 2L
Oct 13vs SEA2 − 3L
Oct 11vs CAR1 − 4L
Oct 10at BOS1 − 5L

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 26vs LA3 − 6L
Oct 24at OTT4 − 7L
Oct 22at TOR4 − 5L
Oct 19vs ANA5 − 2W
Oct 17at CBJ0 − 1L
Oct 15at NJ1 − 7L
Oct 13vs TB4 − 1W
Oct 11vs VAN6 − 2W
Oct 9at WSH1 − 3L
Oct 6vs NYI5 − 2W