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Canadiens at Maple Leafs

NHL · Saturday, Nov 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

← NHL / Nov 7

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
MTL by 0.5
Expected score
MTL 3.6 – 3.1 TOR
Expected total
6.7
CanadiensThe matchupMaple Leafs
−123Our fair odds+123
3.6Expected goals3.1
+0.19Power rating−0.09
3.3Goals / game3.7
2.9Allowed / game3.4
27.5Shots / game28.1
51.0Faceoff %52.4
20.7Hits / game19.9
8−5Season record7−8
7−3Last 105−5
Mike Matheson D · Nick Suzuki C
Ivan Demidov RW · Sam Montembeault GOutJohn Tavares C · Kirill Marchenko RW
Marshall Rifai D · Miles Wood LW
Nick Blankenburg D

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · TOR chance
Our model fair55.2%44.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens−12355%————
TORToronto Maple Leafs+12345%————
SpreadMTL by 0.5
MTLMontreal Canadiens−0.5our margin————
TORToronto Maple Leafs+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Montreal Canadiens by 0.5 expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 3%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 14%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 11%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 18%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 22%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 8%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 9%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 4%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%
← MTL wins byTOR wins by →
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more38%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
MTLnot announced yet
TORnot announced yet

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·TOR
Oct 29 at DAL
last game
Oct 28 at SEA
8 days
days of rest
9 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
Montreal Canadiens
MTLMike Matheson D · lower body, back about Nov 14Out
MTLNick Suzuki COut
MTLIvan Demidov RW · lower bodyIR
MTLSam Montembeault G · lower bodyIR
Toronto Maple Leafs
TORJohn Tavares C · lower bodyIR
TORKirill Marchenko RW · lower body, back about Nov 7IR
TORMarshall Rifai D · lower bodyIR
TORMiles Wood LW · undisclosed, back about Nov 7IR
TORNick Blankenburg D · undisclosedIR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
MTL·TOR
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.3
goals / game
3.7
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.4
8−5
season record
7−8
3−3
home record
4−4
5−2
away record
3−4
W4
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
27.5
shots / game
28.1
51.0
faceoff %
52.4
20.7
hits / game
19.9
12.6
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.2
takeaways / game
4.1
16.3
giveaways / game
16.5

Rating Trend

MTL · TOR · 32 days
Montreal CanadiensToronto Maple Leafs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Sep 29at TORMTL 3 − 2
Mar 10at MTLMTL 3 − 1
Dec 6, 2025at TORMTL 2 − 1 SO
Nov 22, 2025at MTLMTL 5 − 2
Oct 8, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at TORTOR 1 − 0 OT
Jan 18, 2025at MTLTOR 7 − 3
Nov 9, 2024at TORTOR 4 − 1
Oct 9, 2024at MTLMTL 1 − 0
Apr 6, 2024at MTLTOR 4 − 2

MTL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Oct 29at DAL5 − 2W
Oct 27at STL2 − 0W
Oct 25at WPG2 − 1W
Oct 23at CHI4 − 1W
Oct 20vs SJ3 − 4L
Oct 17vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 14at WSH4 − 5L
Oct 13vs BUF4 − 3W
Oct 10vs DET1 − 0W
Oct 8vs NSH2 − 5L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 28at SEA4 − 5L
Oct 26at CGY2 − 5L
Oct 24at EDM7 − 2W
Oct 22vs NYR5 − 4W
Oct 20at CBJ6 − 2W
Oct 19vs SJ3 − 1W
Oct 17vs NYI1 − 4L
Oct 15vs BUF4 − 5L
Oct 13at UTAH4 − 5L
Oct 10at COL6 − 3W