bayesRatings

Rangers at Kraken

NHL · Saturday, Nov 7 · 4:00 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · early forecast

Early forecast: it updates each morning until game day, when it is locked in and graded.

Chance to win, from our model · Updated Oct 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.3 – 2.9 SEA
Expected total
6.2
RangersThe matchupKraken
−116Our fair odds+116
3.3Expected goals2.9
−0.05Power rating−0.15
3.1Goals / game3.7
3.0Allowed / game3.7
24.5Shots / game25.1
53.9Faceoff %52.4
26.0Hits / game16.9
7−7Season record8−6
4−6Last 106−4
Adam Sykora LW · Igor Shesterkin G
Joe Veleno C · Joonas Korpisalo G
OutJacob Melanson RW · Jared McCann LW
Ryan Lindgren D

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · SEA chance
Our model fair53.7%46.3%
Kalshi59.7%50.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi8:14 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers−11654%−14859.7%———
SEASeattle Kraken+11646%−10350.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers−0.3our margin————
SEASeattle Kraken+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 13%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 20%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 22%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 8%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 9%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 4%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 1%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins bySEA wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more34%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more24%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Probable Starting Goalies

as announced
NYRnot announced yet
SEAnot announced yet

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·SEA
Oct 26 vs LA
last game
Oct 30 at CGY
11 days
days of rest
7 days
no
back-to-back
no
0
games in last 7 days
0
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Current team injury lists
New York Rangers
NYRBraden Schneider D · illnessDay-to-day
NYREeli Tolvanen RW · personalDay-to-day
NYRJames Reimer G · upper bodyDay-to-day
NYRSean Durzi D · undisclosedDay-to-day
NYRAdam Sykora LW · lower body, back about Jan 25, 2027IR
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · right knee surgery, back about Sep 15, 2027IR
NYRJoe Veleno C · right lower body, back about Jan 3, 2027IR
NYRJoonas Korpisalo G · lower body, back about Nov 9IR
Seattle Kraken
SEAJacob Melanson RW · chest, back about Dec 1IR
SEAJared McCann LW · lower body, back about Jan 2, 2027IR
SEARyan Lindgren D · upper body, back about Nov 19IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
NYR·SEA
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
3.1
goals / game
3.7
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.7
7−7
season record
8−6
6−1
home record
4−2
1−6
away record
4−4
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
24.5
shots / game
25.1
53.9
faceoff %
52.4
26.0
hits / game
16.9
14.8
blocked shots / game
16.3
4.0
takeaways / game
4.6
15.1
giveaways / game
14.9

Rating Trend

NYR · SEA · 32 days
New York RangersSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 3−7
Jan 12at NYRSEA 4 − 2
Nov 1, 2025at SEANYR 3 − 2 OT
Dec 8, 2024at NYRSEA 7 − 5
Nov 17, 2024at SEANYR 2 − 0
Jan 16, 2024at NYRNYR 5 − 2
Oct 21, 2023at SEANYR 4 − 1
Feb 10, 2023at NYRNYR 6 − 3
Nov 17, 2022at SEASEA 3 − 2 OT
Jan 30, 2022at NYRNYR 3 − 2
Oct 31, 2021at SEANYR 3 − 1

NYR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Oct 26vs LA3 − 6L
Oct 24at OTT4 − 7L
Oct 22at TOR4 − 5L
Oct 19vs ANA5 − 2W
Oct 17at CBJ0 − 1L
Oct 15at NJ1 − 7L
Oct 13vs TB4 − 1W
Oct 11vs VAN6 − 2W
Oct 9at WSH1 − 3L
Oct 6vs NYI5 − 2W

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 30at CGY2 − 6L
Oct 28vs TOR5 − 4W
Oct 24vs MIN1 − 5L
Oct 22vs UTAH5 − 3W
Oct 20vs DET4 − 3W
Oct 17at FLA3 − 8L
Oct 15at TB3 − 4L
Oct 13at PHI3 − 2W
Oct 11at WSH5 − 3W
Oct 9at DET6 − 3W