bayesRatings

Panthers at Blue Jackets

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 10 · 6:30 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final FLA 4 – CBJ 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
FLA0224
CBJ0101
Team box
FLA·CBJ
28
shots
38
1 of 1
power play
0 of 1
38.6
faceoff %
61.4
24
hits
27
16
blocked shots
8
14
penalty minutes
14
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Sam BennettFLA204
Anton LundellFLA022
Aaron EkbladFLA020
Ivan ProvorovCBJ106
Lars EllerFLA103
Sam ReinhartFLA103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob MarkstromFLA3837.974
Cam TalbotCBJ2724.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
FLA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 0 · FLA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was FLA 52%, CBJ 48% · Updated Nov 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
FLA 3.0 – 3.0 CBJ
Expected total
6.0
PanthersThe matchupBlue Jackets
−107Our fair odds+107
3.0Expected goals3.0
+0.01Power rating−0.05
3.1Goals / game2.7
3.1Allowed / game3.1
29.5Shots / game25.7
48.2Faceoff %53.3
32.6Hits / game23.0
9−9Season record7−8
5−5Last 105−5
Sandis Vilmanis · Aleksander Barkov
Brad Marchand · Jonah Gadjovich
Out—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
FLA chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair51.8%48.2%
Kalshi54.7%48.7%
Polymarket US55.4%50.4%
ProphetX54.2%48.2%
Novig54.0%46.5%
Full price table
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:30 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:29 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:27 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:29 PM CT
Moneyline
FLAFlorida Panthers−10752%−12154.7%−12455.4%−11854.2%−11754.0%
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+10748%+10548.7%−10150.4%+10748.2%+11546.5%
Spreadabout even
FLAFlorida Panthers−0.1our margin−1.5 +20832.5%−1.5 +20333.0%−1.5 +20732.6%−1.5 +21731.5%
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.1our margin+1.5 −25171.5%+1.5 −25772.0%+1.5 −23269.8%+1.5 −23370.0%
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our totalo6.5 +11446.7%o6.5 +11147.4%o6.5 +12045.4%o6.5 +12744.0%
Under6.0our totalu6.5 −13757.7%u6.5 −14058.3%u6.5 −13958.1%u6.5 −13056.5%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Florida Panthers by 6 goals: <1%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 2%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 5%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 11%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 10%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 23%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 21%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%
← FLA wins byCBJ wins by →
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more29%
Florida Panthers wins by 3 or more19%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,148 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.524%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,148 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
FLAJacob Markstrom G · last 5 starts: .874 save %, 3.46 GAAstarted
CBJCam Talbot G · last 5 starts: .940 save %, 1.76 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
FLA·CBJ
Nov 8 at BOS
last game
Nov 6 at BUF
1 day
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Nov 10, 2026, 5:10 PM CT
FLASandis Vilmanis · undisclosed, back about Nov 12Out
FLAAleksander Barkov · left knee, back about Nov 27IR
FLABrad Marchand · left knee, back about Nov 21IR
FLAJonah Gadjovich · neck, back about Nov 28IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
FLA·CBJ
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.1
goals / game
2.7
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.1
9−9
season record
7−8
4−2
home record
6−3
5−7
away record
1−5
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
29.5
shots / game
25.7
48.2
faceoff %
53.3
32.6
hits / game
23.0
10.8
blocked shots / game
14.9
3.9
takeaways / game
4.5
16.6
giveaways / game
16.5

Rating Trend

FLA · CBJ · 42 days
Florida PanthersColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 1−9
Oct 13at CBJFLA 7 − 3
Mar 12at FLAFLA 2 − 1 OT
Mar 5at CBJCBJ 4 − 2
Dec 6, 2025at FLAFLA 7 − 6 OT
Mar 20, 2025at CBJFLA 1 − 0 OT
Mar 6, 2025at FLAFLA 3 − 0
Oct 15, 2024at CBJFLA 4 − 3
Apr 11, 2024at FLAFLA 4 − 0
Dec 10, 2023at CBJFLA 5 − 2
Nov 6, 2023at FLAFLA 5 − 4 OT

FLA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 8at BOS1 − 4L
Nov 7at WSH3 − 4L
Nov 4vs CHI5 − 3W
Nov 2vs DET3 − 5L
Oct 30vs WPG5 − 2W
Oct 27at WPG5 − 1W
Oct 25at CHI3 − 2W
Oct 22at PIT0 − 4L
Oct 21at OTT1 − 5L
Oct 17vs SEA8 − 3W

CBJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 6at BUF2 − 5L
Nov 5vs DAL2 − 1W
Nov 3vs COL7 − 2W
Oct 31at DAL1 − 3L
Oct 29at CAR2 − 3L
Oct 27at PHI4 − 3W
Oct 24vs VGK2 − 1W
Oct 20vs TOR2 − 6L
Oct 18at MIN1 − 2L
Oct 17vs NYR1 − 0W