bayesRatings

Twins at Giants

MLB · Monday, Sep 21 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final MIN 2 – SF 5
← MLB / Sep 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000100010240
SF220010005100
Team box
MIN·SF
4
hits
10
2
home runs
1
1
walks
0
8
strikeouts
13
145
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drew GilbertSF3-4213
Brett HarrisSF2-4002
Brooks LeeMIN1-4111
Emmanuel RodriguezMIN1-3111
Alan RodenMIN1-2000
Walker JenkinsMIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zebby Matthews (L)MIN5.08509
Blade TidwellSF3.13104
Tristan Beck (W)SF2.20001
Trent Harris (S)SF1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: SF 4 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 48%, SF 52% · Updated Sep 21

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.6 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.2
TwinsThe matchupGiants
+108Our fair odds−108
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.15Power rating−0.16
4.6Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game4.7
8.3Hits / game8.4
1.15Home runs / game1.13
3.2Walks drawn / game2.8
73−83Season record64−92
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · SF chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi57.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+10848%−13757.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10852%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more27%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 6.08 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SFBlade Tidwell SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.60 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·SF
Sep 20 at LAA
last game
Sep 20 at LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 156+ games
MIN·SF
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
4.6
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.7
73−83
season record
64−92
40−38
home record
36−39
33−45
away record
28−53
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.3
hits / game
8.4
1.15
home runs / game
1.13
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.46
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

MIN · SF · 177 days
Minnesota TwinsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
May 11, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 6
May 10, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1
May 9, 2025at MINMIN 3 − 1
Jul 14, 2024at SFSF 3 − 2
Jul 13, 2024at SFMIN 4 − 2
Jul 12, 2024at SFSF 7 − 1
May 24, 2023at MINMIN 7 − 1
May 23, 2023at MINSF 4 − 3
May 22, 2023at MINSF 4 − 1
Aug 28, 2022at MINMIN 8 − 3

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 20at LAA8 − 0W
Sep 19at LAA5 − 6L
Sep 18at LAA3 − 0W
Sep 17at LAA4 − 5L
Sep 16vs NYY5 − 4W
Sep 15vs NYY1 − 8L
Sep 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Sep 13vs CLE2 − 9L
Sep 12vs CLE4 − 3W
Sep 11vs CLE2 − 5L

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 20at LAD1 − 3L
Sep 19at LAD4 − 10L
Sep 18at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16at STL6 − 5W
Sep 15at STL10 − 3W
Sep 14at STL1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SD4 − 6L
Sep 12vs SD6 − 7L
Sep 11vs SD5 − 7L
Sep 9vs STL7 − 6W