bayesRatings

Twins at Giants

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 23 · 2:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final MIN 4 – SF 2
← MLB / Sep 23

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN001010200490
SF000200000251
Team box
MIN·SF
9
hits
5
1
home runs
0
3
walks
3
6
strikeouts
7
131
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luke KeaschallMIN1-3112
Shay WhitcombSF2-4002
Josh BellMIN1-5001
Walker JenkinsMIN1-2101
Royce LewisMIN1-4000
Ryan JeffersMIN1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connor PrielippMIN5.14223
Yoendrys Gomez (W)MIN1.20002
Andrew Morris (S)MIN1.01012
Cesar PerdomoSF5.15202
Dylan Smith (L)SF0.21211

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 1 · MIN 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 48%, SF 52% · Updated Sep 23

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.6 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.1
TwinsThe matchupGiants
+108Our fair odds−108
4.5Expected runs4.6
−0.15Power rating−0.16
4.5Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game4.7
8.2Hits / game8.3
1.16Home runs / game1.13
3.1Walks drawn / game2.8
74−84Season record65−93
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · SF chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+10848%−15460.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−10852%+12943.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 13%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more27%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.06 ERA, 14 Kstarted
SFCesar Perdomo RP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·SF
Sep 22 at SF
last game
Sep 22 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 158+ games
MIN·SF
−0.15
rating (0 = average)
−0.16
4.5
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.7
74−84
season record
65−93
40−38
home record
37−40
34−46
away record
28−53
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.2
hits / game
8.3
1.16
home runs / game
1.13
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.46
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

MIN · SF · 179 days
Minnesota TwinsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 4−6
Sep 22at SFMIN 3 − 2
Sep 21at SFSF 5 − 2
May 11, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 6
May 10, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1
May 9, 2025at MINMIN 3 − 1
Jul 14, 2024at SFSF 3 − 2
Jul 13, 2024at SFMIN 4 − 2
Jul 12, 2024at SFSF 7 − 1
May 24, 2023at MINMIN 7 − 1
May 23, 2023at MINSF 4 − 3

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Sep 22at SF3 − 2W
Sep 21at SF2 − 5L
Sep 20at LAA8 − 0W
Sep 19at LAA5 − 6L
Sep 18at LAA3 − 0W
Sep 17at LAA4 − 5L
Sep 16vs NYY5 − 4W
Sep 15vs NYY1 − 8L
Sep 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Sep 13vs CLE2 − 9L

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 22vs MIN2 − 3L
Sep 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Sep 20at LAD1 − 3L
Sep 19at LAD4 − 10L
Sep 18at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16at STL6 − 5W
Sep 15at STL10 − 3W
Sep 14at STL1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SD4 − 6L
Sep 12vs SD6 − 7L