bayesRatings

Twins at Giants

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 22 · 8:45 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final MIN 3 – SF 2
← MLB / Sep 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN000002100361
SF010000001261
Team box
MIN·SF
6
hits
6
1
home runs
0
1
walks
6
7
strikeouts
10
169
pitches thrown
114
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Walker JenkinsMIN1-4111
Brooks LeeMIN2-4001
Luke KeaschallMIN1-4101
Kody ClemensMIN1-4000
Ryan KreidlerMIN1-3100
Andrew KniznerSF1-1000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Taj Bradley (W)MIN6.03136
Jeff Hoffman (S)MIN1.00121
Anthony Molina (L)SF6.04216

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 1 · MIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 48%, SF 52% · Updated Sep 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SF 4.7 – 4.5 MIN
Expected total
9.2
TwinsThe matchupGiants
+110Our fair odds−110
4.5Expected runs4.7
−0.16Power rating−0.15
4.5Runs / game4.2
5.0Allowed / game4.7
8.2Hits / game8.4
1.16Home runs / game1.13
3.1Walks drawn / game2.8
73−84Season record65−92
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · SF chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11048%−14258.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−11052%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 13%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 7%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more38%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINTaj Bradley SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 21 Kstarted
SFAnthony Molina SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·SF
Sep 21 at SF
last game
Sep 21 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 157+ games
MIN·SF
−0.16
rating (0 = average)
−0.15
4.5
runs / game
4.2
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.7
73−84
season record
65−92
40−38
home record
37−39
33−46
away record
28−53
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.2
hits / game
8.4
1.16
home runs / game
1.13
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.45
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

MIN · SF · 178 days
Minnesota TwinsSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Sep 21at SFSF 5 − 2
May 11, 2025at MINMIN 7 − 6
May 10, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1
May 9, 2025at MINMIN 3 − 1
Jul 14, 2024at SFSF 3 − 2
Jul 13, 2024at SFMIN 4 − 2
Jul 12, 2024at SFSF 7 − 1
May 24, 2023at MINMIN 7 − 1
May 23, 2023at MINSF 4 − 3
May 22, 2023at MINSF 4 − 1

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Sep 21at SF2 − 5L
Sep 20at LAA8 − 0W
Sep 19at LAA5 − 6L
Sep 18at LAA3 − 0W
Sep 17at LAA4 − 5L
Sep 16vs NYY5 − 4W
Sep 15vs NYY1 − 8L
Sep 14vs NYY3 − 8L
Sep 13vs CLE2 − 9L
Sep 12vs CLE4 − 3W

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Sep 20at LAD1 − 3L
Sep 19at LAD4 − 10L
Sep 18at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16at STL6 − 5W
Sep 15at STL10 − 3W
Sep 14at STL1 − 2L
Sep 13vs SD4 − 6L
Sep 12vs SD6 − 7L
Sep 11vs SD5 − 7L