bayesRatings

Angels at Mariners

MLB · Saturday, Sep 26 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final LAA 4 – SEA 8
← MLB / Sep 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA000004000471
SEA010120408122
Team box
LAA·SEA
7
hits
12
0
home runs
1
5
walks
6
9
strikeouts
7
145
pitches thrown
162
1
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
J.P. CrawfordSEA2-5112
Jose SiriLAA2-5001
Bryce TeodosioLAA1-4102
Taylor WardSEA1-1102
Cole YoungSEA2-3301
Michael ArroyoSEA3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan JohnsonLAA5.07443
Mitch Farris (L)LAA2.04413
Kade AndersonSEA3.14014
Carlos Vargas (W)SEA1.20010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
LAA +4
123456789
largest lead: SEA 4 · LAA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 43%, SEA 57% · Updated Sep 26

Expected margin
SEA by 0.5
Expected score
SEA 4.5 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
8.6
AngelsThe matchupMariners
+134Our fair odds−134
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.31Power rating−0.10
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.6Allowed / game4.5
7.8Hits / game7.7
0.96Home runs / game1.13
3.1Walks drawn / game3.4
62−98Season record74−86
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · SEA chance
Our model fair42.8%57.2%
Kalshi43.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13443%+12943.7%———
SEASeattle Mariners−13457%−16161.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.5
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.5our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.5 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 18%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more39%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more29%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAARyan Johnson SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 18 Kstarted
SEAKade Anderson SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·SEA
Sep 25 at SEA
last game
Sep 25 vs LAA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 160+ games
LAA·SEA
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
62−98
season record
74−86
34−47
home record
41−38
28−51
away record
33−48
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.7
0.96
home runs / game
1.13
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.56
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

LAA · SEA · 182 days
Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 4−6
Sep 25at SEALAA 7 − 5
Sep 24at SEALAA 6 − 4
Sep 16at LAASEA 7 − 2
Sep 15at LAALAA 2 − 1
Sep 14at LAALAA 6 − 4
Jul 2at SEASEA 1 − 0
Jun 30at SEASEA 8 − 3
Jun 29at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 5at LAALAA 8 − 7
Apr 4at LAALAA 1 − 0

LAA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 25at SEA7 − 5W
Sep 24at SEA6 − 4W
Sep 23at ATH3 − 7L
Sep 22at ATH7 − 9L
Sep 20vs MIN0 − 8L
Sep 19vs MIN6 − 5W
Sep 18vs MIN0 − 3L
Sep 17vs MIN5 − 4W
Sep 16vs SEA2 − 7L
Sep 15vs SEA2 − 1W

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 25vs LAA5 − 7L
Sep 24vs LAA4 − 6L
Sep 23vs HOU6 − 5W
Sep 22vs HOU0 − 7L
Sep 20at COL2 − 1W
Sep 19at COL3 − 5L
Sep 18at COL5 − 4W
Sep 16at LAA7 − 2W
Sep 15at LAA1 − 2L
Sep 14at LAA4 − 6L