bayesRatings

Angels at Mariners

MLB · Thursday, Sep 24 · 8:40 PM CT · T-Mobile Park · Final LAA 6 – SEA 4
← MLB / Sep 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAA010022010690
SEA030010000471
Team box
LAA·SEA
9
hits
7
0
home runs
1
6
walks
5
13
strikeouts
5
148
pitches thrown
165
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Julio RodriguezSEA2-4112
Christian MooreLAA2-4103
Bryce TeodosioLAA1-4002
Josh LoweLAA2-3300
Wade MecklerLAA2-4000
Zach NetoLAA1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Grayson Rodriguez (W)LAA5.05452
Ryan Watson (S)LAA1.00002
Bryan Woo (L)SEA5.17438

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
LAA +3
123456789
largest lead: SEA 2 · LAA 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAA 42%, SEA 58% · Updated Sep 24

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.5 – 4.0 LAA
Expected total
8.5
AngelsThe matchupMariners
+139Our fair odds−139
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.33Power rating−0.09
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.6Allowed / game4.4
7.8Hits / game7.7
0.96Home runs / game1.13
3.1Walks drawn / game3.4
60−98Season record74−84
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAA chance · SEA chance
Our model fair41.9%58.1%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LAALos Angeles Angels+13942%+15938.6%———
SEASeattle Mariners−13958%−19165.6%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
LAALos Angeles Angels+0.6our margin————
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 18%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%
← LAA wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more40%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more30%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.62 ERA, 11 Kstarted
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAA·SEA
Sep 23 at ATH
last game
Sep 23 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 158+ games
LAA·SEA
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.4
60−98
season record
74−84
34−47
home record
41−36
26−51
away record
33−48
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
7.7
0.96
home runs / game
1.13
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.56
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

LAA · SEA · 180 days
Los Angeles AngelsSeattle Mariners
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Sep 16at LAASEA 7 − 2
Sep 15at LAALAA 2 − 1
Sep 14at LAALAA 6 − 4
Jul 2at SEASEA 1 − 0
Jun 30at SEASEA 8 − 3
Jun 29at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 5at LAALAA 8 − 7
Apr 4at LAALAA 1 − 0
Apr 3at LAASEA 3 − 1
Sep 14, 2025at SEASEA 11 − 2

LAA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Sep 23at ATH3 − 7L
Sep 22at ATH7 − 9L
Sep 20vs MIN0 − 8L
Sep 19vs MIN6 − 5W
Sep 18vs MIN0 − 3L
Sep 17vs MIN5 − 4W
Sep 16vs SEA2 − 7L
Sep 15vs SEA2 − 1W
Sep 14vs SEA6 − 4W
Sep 13at WSH5 − 6L

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 23vs HOU6 − 5W
Sep 22vs HOU0 − 7L
Sep 20at COL2 − 1W
Sep 19at COL3 − 5L
Sep 18at COL5 − 4W
Sep 16at LAA7 − 2W
Sep 15at LAA1 − 2L
Sep 14at LAA4 − 6L
Sep 13at ATH7 − 8L
Sep 12at ATH19 − 1W