bayesRatings

Yankees at Rays

MLB · Monday, Oct 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Tropicana Field · Final NYY 2 – TB 5
← MLB / Oct 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY000100010244
TB10004000580
Team box
NYY·TB
4
hits
8
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
7
strikeouts
4
137
pitches thrown
124
4
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY2-3222
Richie PalaciosTB1-4002
Jonathan ArandaTB2-5100
Chandler SimpsonTB1-4101
Junior CamineroTB2-4100
Cody BellingerNYY1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam Schlittler (L)NYY4.16212
Freddy PeraltaTB4.23113
Cam Booser (W)TB0.10010
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: TB 4 · NYY 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 50%, TB 50% · Updated Oct 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYY 4.0 – 4.0 TB
Expected total
8.0
YankeesThe matchupRays
+101Our fair odds−101
4.0Expected runs4.0
+0.28Power rating+0.20
4.6Runs / game4.5
3.7Allowed / game4.0
7.8Hits / game8.7
1.39Home runs / game1.04
3.6Walks drawn / game3.2
93−68 · 2−1 postSeason record98−64 · 1−0 post
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · TB chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees+10150%−12154.7%———
TBTampa Bay Rays−10150%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYYNew York Yankees−0.1our margin————
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 4%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byTB wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more36%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more26%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 1.17 ERA, 21 Kstarted
TBFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 0.56 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·TB
Oct 3 at TB
last game
Oct 3 vs NYY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
3
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 161+ games
NYY·TB
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
4.6
runs / game
4.5
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.0
93−68 · 2−1 post
season record
98−64 · 1−0 post
46−34
home record
55−26
47−34
away record
43−38
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.7
1.39
home runs / game
1.04
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.60
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

NYY · TB · 189 days
New York YankeesTampa Bay Rays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Oct 3at TBTB 1 − 0post
Sep 24at NYYNYY 6 − 4
Sep 23at NYYNYY 9 − 2
Sep 22at NYYTB 6 − 1
Sep 22at NYYNYY 2 − 0
Jul 9at TBNYY 12 − 4
Jul 8at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 7at TBTB 6 − 4
Jul 6at TBNYY 5 − 1
May 24at NYYNYY 2 − 0

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Oct 3at TB0 − 1L
Sep 30vs BOS9 − 2W
Sep 29vs BOS9 − 0W
Sep 25vs BAL6 − 3W
Sep 25vs BAL2 − 10L
Sep 24vs TB6 − 4W
Sep 23vs TB9 − 2W
Sep 22vs TB1 − 6L
Sep 22vs TB2 − 0W
Sep 20at ARI4 − 8L

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 3vs NYY1 − 0W
Sep 27at PHI3 − 7L
Sep 26at PHI12 − 1W
Sep 25at PHI2 − 0W
Sep 24at NYY4 − 6L
Sep 23at NYY2 − 9L
Sep 22at NYY6 − 1W
Sep 22at NYY0 − 2L
Sep 20vs BOS5 − 1W
Sep 19vs BOS2 − 1W