bayesRatings

Red Sox at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 29 · 7:00 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BOS 0 – NYY 9
← MLB / Sep 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000000000030
NYY010010259120
Team box
BOS·NYY
3
hits
12
0
home runs
2
1
walks
5
11
strikeouts
4
161
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY4-5226
Austin WellsNYY2-3102
George Lombard Jr.NYY3-4200
Trevor StoryBOS1-3000
Adley RutschmanBOS1-4000
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Payton Tolle (L)BOS4.25114
Cam Schlittler (W)NYY6.120110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +9
BOS +9
123456789
largest lead: NYY 9 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 46%, NYY 54% · Updated Sep 29

Expected margin
NYY by 0.5
Expected score
NYY 4.2 – 3.8 BOS
Expected total
8.0
Red SoxThe matchupYankees
+119Our fair odds−119
3.8Expected runs4.2
+0.16Power rating+0.26
4.3Runs / game4.6
3.8Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game7.8
1.01Home runs / game1.39
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
87−75Season record93−68
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYY chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+11946%+10947.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−11954%−13156.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.5
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.5our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.5 expected
Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more39%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 24 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYY
Sep 27 vs CHC
last game
Sep 25 vs BAL
1 day
days of rest
3 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 161+ games
BOS·NYY
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
4.3
runs / game
4.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.7
87−75
season record
93−68
41−40
home record
46−34
46−35
away record
47−34
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.8
1.01
home runs / game
1.39
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.51
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BOS · NYY · 184 days
Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Aug 30at NYYNYY 16 − 1
Aug 29at NYYNYY 9 − 2
Aug 29at NYYBOS 6 − 0
Aug 28at NYYNYY 1 − 0
Jun 28at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Jun 27at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jun 26at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Jun 25at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 7at NYYNYY 6 − 1
Jun 5at NYYBOS 5 − 3

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 27vs CHC2 − 6L
Sep 25vs CHC2 − 0W
Sep 25vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 24vs CLE0 − 1L
Sep 23vs CLE1 − 0W
Sep 22vs CLE2 − 3L
Sep 20at TB1 − 5L
Sep 19at TB1 − 2L
Sep 18at TB4 − 2W
Sep 17at TEX4 − 3W

NYY · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 25vs BAL6 − 3W
Sep 25vs BAL2 − 10L
Sep 24vs TB6 − 4W
Sep 23vs TB9 − 2W
Sep 22vs TB1 − 6L
Sep 22vs TB2 − 0W
Sep 20at ARI4 − 8L
Sep 19at ARI3 − 5L
Sep 18at ARI9 − 2W
Sep 16at MIN4 − 5L