bayesRatings

Orioles at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Sep 25 · 6:30 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BAL 3 – NYY 6
← MLB / Sep 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL0000001023111
NYY00001320680
Team box
BAL·NYY
11
hits
8
1
home runs
0
4
walks
5
17
strikeouts
12
150
pitches thrown
173
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Leody TaverasBAL2-4002
Dylan BeaversBAL1-5111
Coby MayoBAL3-4000
Ryan McMahonNYY2-4101
Anthony VolpeNYY1-4002
Christian FranklinBAL2-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon Young (L)BAL5.02136
Ryan YarbroughNYY2.14015
Will Warren (W)NYY3.23007

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +5
BAL +5
123456789
largest lead: NYY 5 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 41%, NYY 59% · Updated Sep 25

Expected margin
NYY by 1.1
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.7 BAL
Expected total
8.5
OriolesThe matchupYankees
+146Our fair odds−146
3.7Expected runs4.8
−0.03Power rating+0.27
4.4Runs / game4.6
4.6Allowed / game3.7
7.8Hits / game7.8
1.22Home runs / game1.40
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
78−81Season record92−67
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair40.7%59.3%
Kalshi49.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:30 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+14641%+10149.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−14659%−11653.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.1
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.1 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 17 Kstarted
NYYRyan Yarbrough RP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 2.13 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·NYY
Sep 25 at NYY
last game
Sep 25 vs BAL
same day
days of rest
same day
7
games in last 7 days
8
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 159+ games
BAL·NYY
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.4
runs / game
4.6
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.7
78−81
season record
92−67
39−42
home record
45−33
39−39
away record
47−34
W3
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
7.8
1.22
home runs / game
1.40
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.59
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BAL · NYY · 181 days
Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 8−2
Aug 20at BALNYY 6 − 1
Aug 19at BALNYY 5 − 3
Aug 18at BALNYY 3 − 1
May 13at BALBAL 7 − 0
May 12at BALNYY 6 − 2
May 11at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 4at NYYNYY 12 − 1
May 3at NYYNYY 11 − 3
May 2at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 1at NYYNYY 7 − 2

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Sep 23vs TOR4 − 2W
Sep 23vs TOR4 − 2W
Sep 21vs TOR4 − 3W
Sep 20vs MIL0 − 3L
Sep 19vs MIL0 − 1L
Sep 18vs MIL5 − 6L
Sep 16at NYM7 − 1W
Sep 15at NYM7 − 5W
Sep 14at NYM2 − 1W
Sep 13at TOR1 − 8L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 24vs TB6 − 4W
Sep 23vs TB9 − 2W
Sep 22vs TB1 − 6L
Sep 22vs TB2 − 0W
Sep 20at ARI4 − 8L
Sep 19at ARI3 − 5L
Sep 18at ARI9 − 2W
Sep 16at MIN4 − 5L
Sep 15at MIN8 − 1W
Sep 14at MIN8 − 3W