bayesRatings

Orioles at Yankees

MLB · Friday, Sep 25 · 3:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BAL 10 – NYY 2
← MLB / Sep 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL00250111010121
NYY000100001291
Team box
BAL·NYY
12
hits
9
4
home runs
0
6
walks
1
12
strikeouts
11
135
pitches thrown
188
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete AlonsoBAL3-5223
Dylan BeaversBAL1-4214
Jeremiah JacksonBAL1-4111
Christian FranklinBAL2-5201
Amed RosarioNYY2-4001
Colton CowserBAL2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor RogersBAL4.05104
Albert Suarez (W)BAL4.03005
Brendan Beck (L)NYY5.06738

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +9
BAL +9
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · BAL 9lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 41%, NYY 59% · Updated Sep 25

Expected margin
NYY by 1.1
Expected score
NYY 4.8 – 3.7 BAL
Expected total
8.5
OriolesThe matchupYankees
+146Our fair odds−146
3.7Expected runs4.8
−0.03Power rating+0.27
4.4Runs / game4.6
4.6Allowed / game3.7
7.8Hits / game7.8
1.22Home runs / game1.40
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
78−81Season record92−67
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · NYY chance
Our model fair40.7%59.3%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+14641%−10350.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−14659%−11653.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.1
BALBaltimore Orioles+1.1our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.1 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 21.1 IP, 2.53 ERA, 21 Kstarted
NYYBrendan Beck RP · last 1 start: 3.2 IP, 12.27 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·NYY
Sep 23 vs TOR
last game
Sep 24 vs TB
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 159+ games
BAL·NYY
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.4
runs / game
4.6
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.7
78−81
season record
92−67
39−42
home record
45−33
39−39
away record
47−34
W3
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
7.8
1.22
home runs / game
1.40
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
9.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.59
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BAL · NYY · 181 days
Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 8−2
Aug 20at BALNYY 6 − 1
Aug 19at BALNYY 5 − 3
Aug 18at BALNYY 3 − 1
May 13at BALBAL 7 − 0
May 12at BALNYY 6 − 2
May 11at BALBAL 3 − 2
May 4at NYYNYY 12 − 1
May 3at NYYNYY 11 − 3
May 2at NYYNYY 9 − 4
May 1at NYYNYY 7 − 2

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Sep 23vs TOR4 − 2W
Sep 23vs TOR4 − 2W
Sep 21vs TOR4 − 3W
Sep 20vs MIL0 − 3L
Sep 19vs MIL0 − 1L
Sep 18vs MIL5 − 6L
Sep 16at NYM7 − 1W
Sep 15at NYM7 − 5W
Sep 14at NYM2 − 1W
Sep 13at TOR1 − 8L

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 24vs TB6 − 4W
Sep 23vs TB9 − 2W
Sep 22vs TB1 − 6L
Sep 22vs TB2 − 0W
Sep 20at ARI4 − 8L
Sep 19at ARI3 − 5L
Sep 18at ARI9 − 2W
Sep 16at MIN4 − 5L
Sep 15at MIN8 − 1W
Sep 14at MIN8 − 3W