bayesRatings

Red Sox at Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 30 · 7:00 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final BOS 2 – NYY 9
← MLB / Sep 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000001100241
NYY000116109140
Team box
BOS·NYY
4
hits
14
2
home runs
2
2
walks
3
8
strikeouts
10
147
pitches thrown
142
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cody BellingerNYY2-5114
Luis Garcia Jr.NYY3-5111
Willson ContrerasBOS2-2111
Nick SogardBOS1-3111
Austin WellsNYY1-3102
Ryan McMahonNYY1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (L)BOS4.26205
Max Fried (W)NYY6.03116

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +7
BOS +7
123456789
largest lead: NYY 7 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 45%, NYY 55% · Updated Sep 30

Expected margin
NYY by 0.6
Expected score
NYY 4.3 – 3.7 BOS
Expected total
8.0
Red SoxThe matchupYankees
+123Our fair odds−123
3.7Expected runs4.3
+0.15Power rating+0.28
4.3Runs / game4.6
3.8Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game7.8
1.01Home runs / game1.39
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
87−75 · 0−1 postSeason record93−68 · 1−0 post
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · NYY chance
Our model fair44.8%55.2%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+12345%+11446.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−12355%−13757.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.6
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.6our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.6 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more40%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 14 Kstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·NYY
Sep 29 at NYY
last game
Sep 29 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 161+ games
BOS·NYY
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
4.3
runs / game
4.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
3.7
87−75 · 0−1 post
season record
93−68 · 1−0 post
41−40
home record
46−34
46−35
away record
47−34
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
7.8
1.01
home runs / game
1.39
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.51
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

BOS · NYY · 185 days
Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Sep 29at NYYNYY 9 − 0post
Aug 30at NYYNYY 16 − 1
Aug 29at NYYNYY 9 − 2
Aug 29at NYYBOS 6 − 0
Aug 28at NYYNYY 1 − 0
Jun 28at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Jun 27at BOSBOS 4 − 1
Jun 26at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Jun 25at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jun 7at NYYNYY 6 − 1

BOS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 29at NYY0 − 9L
Sep 27vs CHC2 − 6L
Sep 25vs CHC2 − 0W
Sep 25vs CHC4 − 3W
Sep 24vs CLE0 − 1L
Sep 23vs CLE1 − 0W
Sep 22vs CLE2 − 3L
Sep 20at TB1 − 5L
Sep 19at TB1 − 2L
Sep 18at TB4 − 2W

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 29vs BOS9 − 0W
Sep 25vs BAL6 − 3W
Sep 25vs BAL2 − 10L
Sep 24vs TB6 − 4W
Sep 23vs TB9 − 2W
Sep 22vs TB1 − 6L
Sep 22vs TB2 − 0W
Sep 20at ARI4 − 8L
Sep 19at ARI3 − 5L
Sep 18at ARI9 − 2W