bayesRatings

Dodgers at Braves

MLB · Wednesday, Oct 7 · 5:00 PM CT · Truist Park · Final LAD 4 – ATL 1
← MLB / Oct 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD010000201450
ATL100000000132
Team box
LAD·ATL
5
hits
3
1
home runs
0
3
walks
5
5
strikeouts
8
123
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andy PagesLAD2-3002
Max MuncyLAD1-4111
Michael Harris IIATL2-3100
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4000
Teoscar HernandezLAD1-4100
Kyle TuckerLAD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler GlasnowLAD4.21155
Edgardo Henriquez (W)LAD1.21000
Edwin Diaz (S)LAD1.00001
Tyler Mahle (L)ATL6.13114

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 1 · LAD 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 53%, ATL 47% · Updated Oct 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.2 – 3.8 ATL
Expected total
8.0
DodgersThe matchupBraves
−114Our fair odds+114
4.2Expected runs3.8
+0.38Power rating+0.17
4.9Runs / game4.6
3.7Allowed / game3.9
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.26Home runs / game1.26
3.9Walks drawn / game2.9
100−62 · 2−1 postSeason record94−68 · 3−3 post
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ATL chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11453%−14859.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves+11447%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byATL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more39%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more28%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADTyler Glasnow SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA, 28 Kstarted
ATLTyler Mahle SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.50 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ATL
Oct 6 at ATL
last game
Oct 6 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
LAD·ATL
+0.38
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.9
runs / game
4.6
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.9
100−62 · 2−1 post
season record
94−68 · 3−3 post
51−30
home record
52−29
49−32
away record
42−39
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.26
home runs / game
1.26
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.40
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

LAD · ATL · 191 days
Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Oct 6at ATLLAD 3 − 1post
Oct 4at LADATL 3 − 2post
Oct 3at LADLAD 5 − 3post
Aug 27at ATLATL 1 − 0
Aug 26at ATLATL 6 − 5
Aug 25at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 10at LADATL 7 − 2
May 9at LADATL 7 − 2
May 8at LADLAD 3 − 1
May 4, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Oct 6at ATL3 − 1W
Oct 4vs ATL2 − 3L
Oct 3vs ATL5 − 3W
Sep 27at SF5 − 1W
Sep 26at SF4 − 3W
Sep 25at SF2 − 0W
Sep 24vs SD2 − 4L
Sep 23vs SD1 − 5L
Sep 22vs SD7 − 0W
Sep 20vs SF3 − 1W

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 6vs LAD1 − 3L
Oct 4at LAD3 − 2W
Oct 3at LAD3 − 5L
Oct 1vs PHI6 − 2W
Sep 30vs PHI3 − 4L
Sep 29vs PHI5 − 3W
Sep 27at MIA3 − 5L
Sep 26at MIA8 − 3W
Sep 25at MIA0 − 3L
Sep 24vs CIN6 − 7L