bayesRatings

Braves at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Oct 4 · 7:00 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final ATL 3 – LAD 2
← MLB / Oct 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL100010100360
LAD000100001260
Team box
ATL·LAD
6
hits
6
0
home runs
2
8
walks
3
10
strikeouts
9
138
pitches thrown
182
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4111
Michael Harris IIATL3-5101
Max MuncyLAD1-3111
Mauricio DubonATL1-3001
Matt OlsonATL1-4100
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ray KerrATL2.22014
Dylan Lee (W)ATL0.21011
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL0.10000
Blake SnellLAD3.23155
Kris Bubic (L)LAD0.21110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 0 · ATL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 43%, LAD 57% · Updated Oct 4

Expected margin
LAD by 0.9
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 3.8 ATL
Expected total
8.4
BravesThe matchupDodgers
+135Our fair odds−135
3.8Expected runs4.7
+0.17Power rating+0.38
4.6Runs / game4.9
3.9Allowed / game3.7
8.3Hits / game8.6
1.26Home runs / game1.26
2.9Walks drawn / game3.9
94−68 · 2−2 postSeason record100−62 · 1−0 post
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · LAD chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves+13543%+19833.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−13557%−23970.5%———
SpreadLAD by 0.9
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.9our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.9 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 9%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more43%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLRay Kerr RP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 9 Kstarted
LADBlake Snell SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 1.69 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·LAD
Oct 3 at LAD
last game
Oct 3 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
ATL·LAD
+0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.38
4.6
runs / game
4.9
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.7
94−68 · 2−2 post
season record
100−62 · 1−0 post
52−29
home record
51−30
42−39
away record
49−32
L1
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
8−2
8.3
hits / game
8.6
1.26
home runs / game
1.26
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.40
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

ATL · LAD · 188 days
Atlanta BravesLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 4−6
Oct 3at LADLAD 5 − 3post
Aug 27at ATLATL 1 − 0
Aug 26at ATLATL 6 − 5
Aug 25at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 10at LADATL 7 − 2
May 9at LADATL 7 − 2
May 8at LADLAD 3 − 1
May 4, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 3, 2025at ATLLAD 10 − 3
May 2, 2025at ATLLAD 2 − 1

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 3at LAD3 − 5L
Oct 1vs PHI6 − 2W
Sep 30vs PHI3 − 4L
Sep 29vs PHI5 − 3W
Sep 27at MIA3 − 5L
Sep 26at MIA8 − 3W
Sep 25at MIA0 − 3L
Sep 24vs CIN6 − 7L
Sep 23vs CIN3 − 2W
Sep 22vs CIN0 − 4L

LAD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Oct 3vs ATL5 − 3W
Sep 27at SF5 − 1W
Sep 26at SF4 − 3W
Sep 25at SF2 − 0W
Sep 24vs SD2 − 4L
Sep 23vs SD1 − 5L
Sep 22vs SD7 − 0W
Sep 20vs SF3 − 1W
Sep 19vs SF10 − 4W
Sep 18vs SF8 − 2W