bayesRatings

Dodgers at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Sep 26 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final LAD 4 – SF 3
← MLB / Sep 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD001200001490
SF001000110390
Team box
LAD·SF
9
hits
9
2
home runs
0
3
walks
1
11
strikeouts
10
149
pitches thrown
148
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Enrique HernandezLAD1-4111
Mookie BettsLAD1-5111
Tommy EdmanLAD2-4001
Drew CavanaughSF2-2001
Bo DavidsonSF2-3001
Miguel RojasLAD1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Blake SnellLAD4.05103
Evan Phillips (W)LAD1.01101
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.01002
Matt WilkinsonSF3.01112
Trent Harris (L)SF1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · LAD 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 61%, SF 39% · Updated Sep 26

Expected margin
LAD by 1.4
Expected score
LAD 5.0 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
8.6
DodgersThe matchupGiants
−157Our fair odds+157
5.0Expected runs3.6
+0.36Power rating−0.17
5.0Runs / game4.2
3.7Allowed / game4.7
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.26Home runs / game1.11
3.9Walks drawn / game2.8
98−62Season record65−95
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · SF chance
Our model fair61.0%39.0%
Kalshi73.4%30.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15761%−27673.4%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+15739%+22930.4%———
SpreadLAD by 1.4
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.4our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.4 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 13%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins bySF wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more48%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more37%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADBlake Snell SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 0.71 ERA, 16 Kstarted
SFMatt Wilkinson SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·SF
Sep 25 at SF
last game
Sep 25 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 160+ games
LAD·SF
+0.36
rating (0 = average)
−0.17
5.0
runs / game
4.2
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.7
98−62
season record
65−95
51−30
home record
37−42
47−32
away record
28−53
W1
streak
L3
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.26
home runs / game
1.11
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.8
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.40
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

LAD · SF · 182 days
Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Sep 25at SFLAD 2 − 0
Sep 20at LADLAD 3 − 1
Sep 19at LADLAD 10 − 4
Sep 18at LADLAD 8 − 2
May 14at LADLAD 5 − 2
May 13at LADLAD 4 − 0
May 12at LADSF 6 − 2
May 11at LADSF 9 − 3
Apr 23at SFLAD 3 − 0
Apr 22at SFSF 3 − 0

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 25at SF2 − 0W
Sep 24vs SD2 − 4L
Sep 23vs SD1 − 5L
Sep 22vs SD7 − 0W
Sep 20vs SF3 − 1W
Sep 19vs SF10 − 4W
Sep 18vs SF8 − 2W
Sep 17at CIN8 − 2W
Sep 16at CIN2 − 6L
Sep 15at CIN4 − 0W

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Sep 25vs LAD0 − 2L
Sep 23vs MIN2 − 4L
Sep 22vs MIN2 − 3L
Sep 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Sep 20at LAD1 − 3L
Sep 19at LAD4 − 10L
Sep 18at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 16at STL6 − 5W
Sep 15at STL10 − 3W
Sep 14at STL1 − 2L