bayesRatings

Dodgers at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, Oct 6 · 5:00 PM CT · Truist Park · Final LAD 3 – ATL 1
← MLB / Oct 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000300000380
ATL000010000152
Team box
LAD·ATL
8
hits
5
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
12
strikeouts
12
136
pitches thrown
164
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Enrique HernandezLAD1-4112
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4111
Mookie BettsLAD2-5000
Andy PagesLAD2-4100
Matt OlsonATL1-4000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (W)LAD7.041110
Edwin Diaz (S)LAD1.01000
Chris Sale (L)ATL5.07307

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · LAD 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 53%, ATL 47% · Updated Oct 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.2 – 3.8 ATL
Expected total
8.1
DodgersThe matchupBraves
−112Our fair odds+112
4.2Expected runs3.8
+0.37Power rating+0.17
4.9Runs / game4.6
3.7Allowed / game3.9
8.6Hits / game8.3
1.26Home runs / game1.26
3.9Walks drawn / game2.9
100−62 · 1−1 postSeason record94−68 · 3−2 post
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ATL chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11253%−11252.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves+11247%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 16%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byATL wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more39%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more28%
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 25 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ATL
Oct 4 vs ATL
last game
Oct 4 at LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
2
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
LAD·ATL
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.17
4.9
runs / game
4.6
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.9
100−62 · 1−1 post
season record
94−68 · 3−2 post
51−30
home record
52−29
49−32
away record
42−39
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.6
hits / game
8.3
1.26
home runs / game
1.26
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.3
0.40
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

LAD · ATL · 190 days
Los Angeles DodgersAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 7−3
Oct 4at LADATL 3 − 2post
Oct 3at LADLAD 5 − 3post
Aug 27at ATLATL 1 − 0
Aug 26at ATLATL 6 − 5
Aug 25at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 10at LADATL 7 − 2
May 9at LADATL 7 − 2
May 8at LADLAD 3 − 1
May 4, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
May 3, 2025at ATLLAD 10 − 3

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Oct 4vs ATL2 − 3L
Oct 3vs ATL5 − 3W
Sep 27at SF5 − 1W
Sep 26at SF4 − 3W
Sep 25at SF2 − 0W
Sep 24vs SD2 − 4L
Sep 23vs SD1 − 5L
Sep 22vs SD7 − 0W
Sep 20vs SF3 − 1W
Sep 19vs SF10 − 4W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 4at LAD3 − 2W
Oct 3at LAD3 − 5L
Oct 1vs PHI6 − 2W
Sep 30vs PHI3 − 4L
Sep 29vs PHI5 − 3W
Sep 27at MIA3 − 5L
Sep 26at MIA8 − 3W
Sep 25at MIA0 − 3L
Sep 24vs CIN6 − 7L
Sep 23vs CIN3 − 2W