bayesRatings

Rays at Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, Oct 7 · 7:00 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TB 4 – NYY 3
← MLB / Oct 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TB001102000471
NYY001101000370
Team box
TB·NYY
7
hits
7
2
home runs
0
0
walks
3
9
strikeouts
12
148
pitches thrown
109
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Victor Mesa Jr.TB1-4112
Ryan ViladeTB1-2111
Anthony VolpeNYY2-4101
Spencer JonesNYY1-2101
Ben RiceNYY1-4001
George Lombard Jr.NYY2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nick MartinezTB3.25213
Ian Seymour (W)TB1.11002
Bryan Baker (S)TB1.00012
Max Fried (L)NYY5.27407

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
TB +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · TB 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 46%, NYY 54% · Updated Oct 7

Expected margin
NYY by 0.5
Expected score
NYY 4.3 – 3.8 TB
Expected total
8.1
RaysThe matchupYankees
+115Our fair odds−115
3.8Expected runs4.3
+0.21Power rating+0.27
4.5Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game3.7
8.7Hits / game7.8
1.04Home runs / game1.39
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
98−64 · 2−0 postSeason record93−68 · 2−2 post
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · NYY chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Rays+11546%+14041.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−11554%−16862.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.5
TBTampa Bay Rays+0.5our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.5 expected
Tampa Bay Rays by 13 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 12 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 11 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 10 runs: <1%Tampa Bay Rays by 9 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 8 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 7 runs: 1%Tampa Bay Rays by 6 runs: 2%Tampa Bay Rays by 5 runs: 3%Tampa Bay Rays by 4 runs: 5%Tampa Bay Rays by 3 runs: 7%Tampa Bay Rays by 2 runs: 10%Tampa Bay Rays by 1 run: 16%New York Yankees by 1 run: 14%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%
← TB wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more40%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more29%
Tampa Bay Rays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TBNick Martinez SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA, 11 Kstarted
NYYMax Fried SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.75 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·NYY
Oct 5 vs NYY
last game
Oct 5 at TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 161+ games
TB·NYY
+0.21
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.5
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
98−64 · 2−0 post
season record
93−68 · 2−2 post
55−26
home record
46−34
43−38
away record
47−34
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
7.8
1.04
home runs / game
1.39
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.57
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

TB · NYY · 191 days
Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
Oct 5at TBTB 5 − 2post
Oct 3at TBTB 1 − 0post
Sep 24at NYYNYY 6 − 4
Sep 23at NYYNYY 9 − 2
Sep 22at NYYTB 6 − 1
Sep 22at NYYNYY 2 − 0
Jul 9at TBNYY 12 − 4
Jul 8at TBTB 3 − 0
Jul 7at TBTB 6 − 4
Jul 6at TBNYY 5 − 1

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 5vs NYY5 − 2W
Oct 3vs NYY1 − 0W
Sep 27at PHI3 − 7L
Sep 26at PHI12 − 1W
Sep 25at PHI2 − 0W
Sep 24at NYY4 − 6L
Sep 23at NYY2 − 9L
Sep 22at NYY6 − 1W
Sep 22at NYY0 − 2L
Sep 20vs BOS5 − 1W

NYY · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Oct 5at TB2 − 5L
Oct 3at TB0 − 1L
Sep 30vs BOS9 − 2W
Sep 29vs BOS9 − 0W
Sep 25vs BAL6 − 3W
Sep 25vs BAL2 − 10L
Sep 24vs TB6 − 4W
Sep 23vs TB9 − 2W
Sep 22vs TB1 − 6L
Sep 22vs TB2 − 0W