bayesRatings

Dodgers at Brewers

MLB · Sunday, Oct 11 · 7:00 PM CT · American Family Field · Final LAD 1 – MIL 2
← MLB / Oct 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD010000000170
MIL00011000260
Team box
LAD·MIL
7
hits
6
0
home runs
1
6
walks
5
8
strikeouts
13
123
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brice TurangMIL1-2111
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4000
Andy PagesLAD1-4001
Jackson ChourioMIL2-4000
Luis LaraMIL1-3001
Freddie FreemanLAD1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tarik Skubal (L)LAD5.05227
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL4.15135
DL Hall (W)MIL0.20000
Trevor Megill (S)MIL1.00020

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: MIL 1 · LAD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 46%, MIL 54% · Updated Oct 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIL 4.5 – 4.1 LAD
Expected total
8.6
DodgersThe matchupBrewers
+117Our fair odds−117
4.1Expected runs4.5
+0.39Power rating+0.47
4.9Runs / game5.1
3.7Allowed / game3.8
8.6Hits / game8.8
1.26Home runs / game0.95
3.9Walks drawn / game4.1
100−62 · 3−1 postSeason record103−59 · 3−1 post
7−3Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · MIL chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+11746%−11252.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−11754%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+0.4our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 15%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more39%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more29%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 20 Kstarted
MILJacob Misiorowski SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·MIL
Oct 7 at ATL
last game
Oct 7 at SD
3 days
days of rest
3 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 162+ games
LAD·MIL
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.47
4.9
runs / game
5.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.8
100−62 · 3−1 post
season record
103−59 · 3−1 post
51−30
home record
55−26
49−32
away record
48−33
W2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
8−2
8.6
hits / game
8.8
1.26
home runs / game
0.95
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.1
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
9.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.40
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

LAD · MIL · 194 days
Los Angeles DodgersMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 4−6
Aug 16at LADMIL 6 − 2
Aug 15at LADMIL 4 − 1
Aug 14at LADLAD 3 − 1
Aug 13at LADMIL 5 − 4
May 24at MILLAD 5 − 1
May 23at MILLAD 11 − 3
May 22at MILMIL 5 − 1
Oct 17, 2025at LADLAD 5 − 1post
Oct 16, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 1post
Oct 14, 2025at MILLAD 5 − 1post

LAD · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Oct 7at ATL4 − 1W
Oct 6at ATL3 − 1W
Oct 4vs ATL2 − 3L
Oct 3vs ATL5 − 3W
Sep 27at SF5 − 1W
Sep 26at SF4 − 3W
Sep 25at SF2 − 0W
Sep 24vs SD2 − 4L
Sep 23vs SD1 − 5L
Sep 22vs SD7 − 0W

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Oct 7at SD3 − 1W
Oct 6at SD3 − 4L
Oct 4vs SD4 − 3W
Oct 3vs SD3 − 2W
Sep 27vs STL6 − 4W
Sep 26vs STL3 − 2W
Sep 25vs STL8 − 4W
Sep 24at PHI5 − 1W
Sep 23at PHI4 − 1W
Sep 22at PHI4 − 6L